Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4610a05844cca3a84e84c727c0cd23285fd36c5bd09960f307457f4d539cc3e4

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $654,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $435,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,987 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	169,833$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…9559backed Yes	1c	90,604$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	57,776$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,005$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	7,033$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	6,231$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	0c	5,693$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	1c	4,439$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	4,154$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	1c	3,850$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	2c	3,455$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.28	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	3,220$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	3c	3,136$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.22	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	2,501$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ac…da2ebacked Yes	4c	2,481$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,442$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.92	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	2,414$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.55	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	7c	2,181$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.17	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,844$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.89	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,630$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	14c	1,559$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,512$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.1	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc835…d92abacked Yes	1c	1,386$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,310$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.77	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	5c	1,307$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	7c	1,249$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,181$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.43	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,104$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.95	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,056$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,006$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	829.94$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	5c	775.36$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.53	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	717.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	699.46$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	15c	650.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	8c	644.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	644$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.13	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	625$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	16c	607$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c3…5034backed Yes	14c	581.28$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.65	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	4c	576.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc69…9ff5backed Yes	2c	575.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74fc…f12bbacked Yes	18c	564.48$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	561.01$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.65	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	6c	542.81$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6410…68efbacked Yes	6c	538.58$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	16c	500$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes	8c	490.8$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa140…0648backed Yes	2c	468.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+311.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7655…c1c7backed Yes	5c	460.42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-91.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	13c	456.49$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.28	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	6c	447.82$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.67	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd46…337ebacked Yes	3c	419.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	11c	414.71$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	7c	407.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.27	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadee…7719backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.91	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	10c	395.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…6cc3backed Yes	5c	379.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	353.73$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb2…6b49backed Yes	9c	351.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	11c	329.49$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.89	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	5c	299.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ff…d819backed Yes	18c	278.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	7c	272.42$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34cb…159ebacked Yes	8c	243.13$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.42	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…96c0backed Yes	9c	232.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	6c	202.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	6c	185.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c05…32c0backed Yes	6c	178.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Yes	11c	178.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	18c	166$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.22	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	12c	149.08$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53f8…dd75backed Yes	13c	149.08$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.23	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-42%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe24f…1a2ebacked Yes	15c	134.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…a9d5backed Yes	13c	131.24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	14c	107.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfd…c4f3backed Yes	14c	106.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa059…23f6backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4534…ec22backed Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9627…b6efbacked Yes	17c	86.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…ea71backed Yes	14c	75.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	18c	74.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event