Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca58c28d6162cbfdecbba9cfa6942fac077c6c85e62f54be2d3927da2e84743d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $365,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $211,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,671 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc835…d92abacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	14,474$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	5,957$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	4,819$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	2c	2,125$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.07	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,502$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	1c	1,433$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,397$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	2c	1,232$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	1c	999.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fa…94e8backed Yes	2c	986.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	470.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event