Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe48431035b03500ae5d5c3c91870a0ae1d64476788656109c7733030e86709

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $499,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $143,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,748 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	174,940$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.94	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	48,318$4,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,692.82	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,203$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	2c	11,739$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.44	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Yes	10c	10,000$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010.64	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	8,226$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	10c	5,629$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.6	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,903$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,070$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Yes	0c	3,750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,451$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	5c	3,294$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.4	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	8c	3,027$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	2,843$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.75	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	4c	2,699$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.44	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,413$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.3	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	2,173$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.04	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	8c	1,806$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.3	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	7c	1,736$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.98	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,661$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.36	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	1,633$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,631$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	1,572$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.28	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	1,354$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.98	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	8c	1,282$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	8c	1,250$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,242$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,122$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.04	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	10c	1,018$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe27a…0218backed Yes	10c	1,015$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	10c	1,012$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	5c	1,010$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.68	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	9c	1,000$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	8c	1,000$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	5c	999.96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	973.38$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.35	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes	10c	965.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	3c	956.54$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.58	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8481…d87abacked Yes	11c	930.48$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	6c	930.39$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ae…8efcbacked Yes	6c	926.44$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Yes	11c	918.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	11cpaid	+112%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	2c	878.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	870.57$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.13	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	3c	844.72$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	792.18$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	739.71$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.17	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	11c	700$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.3	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	699.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	8c	650.85$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	640$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	600$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.04	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	9c	590.94$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.35	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	4c	563.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	5c	553.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.81	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes	3c	522.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8085…0243backed Yes	8c	500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	485.23$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	3c	477.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes	8c	476.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	4c	461$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f7d…5bd2backed Yes	9c	442.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	5c	426.09$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2aa…0b4ebacked Yes	5c	409.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x549b…d2a4backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90a9…5ab5backed Yes	6c	395.77$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	3c	394.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	11c	378.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	5c	374.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	3c	368.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	349.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	10c	340$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.02	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3927…3448backed Yes	4c	339.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes	9c	338.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df2…a79abacked Yes	8c	335.45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	11c	333.41$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.56	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	322.8$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	6c	322.27$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	6c	293.71$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f6…6feabacked Yes	7c	291.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3acc…d1d8backed Yes	6c	290.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	6c	290.34$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	7c	271.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	8c	262.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	9c	250.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	10c	240.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5744…874bbacked Yes	11c	233.16$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…b062backed Yes	6c	222.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb2…ca8ebacked Yes	9c	213.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc13d…4bdabacked Yes	6c	210.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd7…5403backed Yes	8c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event