Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd71fe585994a5dc8be5ee4d4d1a723dc81de15ee87f973d6960240ae46268a44

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $456,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $195,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $456,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	155,000$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	57,776$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	3c	23,990$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.98	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	11,707$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.13	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	10,581$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	6c	8,449$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.71	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8309…c08cbacked Yes	8c	7,449$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.63	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	6,653$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.42	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	1c	5,303$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.81	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	2c	4,775$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.04	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,018$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.75	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	1c	2,894$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.17	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,841$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.93	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	2,808$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.64	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	6c	2,677$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.91	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	3c	2,540$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	6c	2,261$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.5	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	2,034$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.92	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	1c	1,986$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	2c	1,979$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,921$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.57	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	7c	1,468$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,404$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	1,386$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.16	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	7c	1,366$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	2c	1,262$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,256$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.01	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	1,236$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	8c	1,215$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,175$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.53	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	5c	1,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.62	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	978.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	2c	931.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.31	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	3c	920.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	3c	880.61$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	6c	865.03$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.62	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	5c	803.81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	787.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	734.24$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…61e2backed Yes	4c	709.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	7c	700$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.7	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	5c	629$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	2c	604.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	6c	599.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63c…b262backed Yes	3c	592.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.51	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cb…159ebacked Yes	5c	555.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	548.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55cc…3889backed Yes	3c	547.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	6c	500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	4c	485$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	4c	472.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	3c	419.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	5c	410.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Yes	6c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	4c	392.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	354.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa594…006cbacked Yes	4c	350$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes	6c	344.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x861d…68ccbacked Yes	6c	314.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	306.19$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	6c	249.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	5c	210.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8085…0243backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea1…5c7cbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	6c	193.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfacc…5cf0backed Yes	7c	191.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	7c	142.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event