Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9635e6927996a0e44f960b7586625e1777630c1039282e0ce1ccf7b8d9a991

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,069,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $700,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,069,182 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 505 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	84,772$1,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,554.56	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	3c	36,211$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,193.04	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	34,383$1,508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,508.28	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	20,363$3,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,590.29	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	28c	16,685$4,604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,603.74	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	5c	14,835$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.23	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	14,470$1,577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,577.46	547	22.9%125 W · 422 L	+16.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	14,356$2,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,187.36	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	15c	12,978$1,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,993.71	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	4c	12,669$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.94	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	36c	11,048$4,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,018.02	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	15c	10,491$1,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,621.92	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	9,767$1,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.03	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7f…b769backed Yes	4c	9,345$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	8c	9,273$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	80c	9,112$7,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,849.85	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	17c	9,011$1,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,528.18	695	15.7%109 W · 586 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	5c	7,392$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.59	637	39.1%249 W · 388 L	+48.2wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc972…0f4ebacked Yes	9c	6,730$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	17c	6,545$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,083.24	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	13c	6,521$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.34	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	25c	6,482$1,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,595.56	774	21.7%168 W · 606 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	22c	6,479$1,406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,405.76	508	19.1%97 W · 411 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	20c	6,315$1,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,289.59	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7464…71cfbacked Yes	0c	6,188$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	6,004$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780	712	16.7%119 W · 593 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	6,000$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.16	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	21c	5,909$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,244.31	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	5,348$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.63	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes	7c	4,976$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.43	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	14c	4,782$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.66	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	4,696$3,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,241.4	550	75.1%413 W · 137 L	+34.9wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	27c	4,512$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	9c	4,290$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	4,133$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.08	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	10c	4,060$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.59	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	11c	4,045$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.58	71	5.6%4 W · 67 L	-6.1wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	12c	3,651$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.18	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	12c	3,615$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.01	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed No	78c	3,605$2,826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$779.25	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	19c	3,581$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.88	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	14c	3,301$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.83	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	10c	3,107$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.35	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	1c	2,891$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	9c	2,835$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.12	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	13c	2,638$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.2	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	4c	2,622$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.98	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0632…0788backed No	75c	2,600$1,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f54…845ebacked Yes	25c	2,600$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.89	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	12c	2,532$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	32c	2,517$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.64	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	25c	2,502$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	5c	2,500$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	456	11.6%53 W · 403 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	22c	2,500$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	79c	2,439$1,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.4	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	2,400$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	96	5.2%5 W · 91 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-57%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	65c	2,294$1,495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$798.95	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	4c	2,181$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.72	203	26.6%54 W · 149 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9b…7ff2backed Yes	18c	2,159$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.33	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	8c	2,149$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.91	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	14c	2,134$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.81	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0494…a39fbacked Yes	8c	2,100$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	31cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x254b…18c5backed Yes	33c	2,073$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	18c	2,045$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.66	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	7c	2,015$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	6c	2,000$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	2,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	12c	2,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	22c	2,000$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.95	582	8.1%47 W · 535 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	10c	1,983$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.15	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	19c	1,867$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.52	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	29c	1,800$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.18	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Yes	2c	1,789$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.51	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	18c	1,725$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.08	127	28.3%36 W · 91 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	1,714$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	628	12.3%77 W · 551 L	+16.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	28c	1,696$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.56	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	11c	1,635$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.65	368	10.9%40 W · 328 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc361…38babacked Yes	31c	1,605$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	9c	1,586$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.1	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff1…4803backed No	79c	1,585$1,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	18c	1,547$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.36	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes	13c	1,511$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-83.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	14c	1,506$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.4	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	25c	1,464$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa1…a24cbacked Yes	21c	1,457$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.86	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+227.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	6c	1,400$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.22	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,389$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.6	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	6c	1,375$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.87	189	17.5%33 W · 156 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No	77c	1,372$1,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.66	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	8c	1,324$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.92	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	6c	1,304$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.67	342	27.8%95 W · 247 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	32c	1,300$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.83	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	23c	1,294$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.22	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	1,278$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	7c	1,235$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.2	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	21c	1,235$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.8	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	12c	1,227$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.24	435	5.1%22 W · 413 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	25c	1,224$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	227	28.2%64 W · 163 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	12c	1,208$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.5	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	23c	1,203$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.17	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event