Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08eb518255c3ea54811eef2dc1bebb56290947cccce4b1cbe7ab5cd8cf55671

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,538,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,042,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,538,877 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	6c	61,603$3,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,602.61	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	53,456$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.59	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	31,439$3,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,116.73	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	23,970$1,754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,754.1	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	11c	22,962$2,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,515.41	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2275…c88bbacked Yes	1c	21,090$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.91	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	17c	19,465$3,234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,234.13	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	17,274$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.3	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	4c	14,231$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.31	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	15c	14,085$2,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,096.39	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	14,033$1,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,907	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	9c	12,617$1,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.44	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	11,712$1,686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,686.09	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	11c	11,292$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,243.5	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes	9c	11,044$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.99	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	8,340$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	4c	7,589$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.57	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	12c	7,004$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.77	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	14c	6,509$882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$881.77	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	19c	6,482$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220.5	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	11c	5,909$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.17	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	26c	5,769$1,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,478.67	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	8c	5,694$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	3c	5,650$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.68	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	1c	5,419$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	5,177$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930.42	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No	79c	5,140$4,063 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,077.69	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	7c	4,754$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.95	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	6c	4,750$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.61	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	12c	4,563$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.36	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	4,532$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.68	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	7c	4,098$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.5	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	3c	4,000$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	8c	4,000$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	3,602$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	4c	3,569$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.31	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	11c	3,566$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.73	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	3,393$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.82	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	3,384$2,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$813.84	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	21c	3,330$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.86	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	13c	3,287$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.03	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	3,237$2,476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$761.23	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	5c	3,184$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	10c	3,146$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.84	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	3,070$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.05	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	9c	3,000$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.38	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa1…a24cbacked Yes	34c	3,000$1,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,022	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+227.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	3,000$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.52	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5694…9baebacked Yes	9c	2,991$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.65	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	7c	2,964$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.18	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4a…a3a3backed Yes	12c	2,900$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	17c	2,885$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.31	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc972…0f4ebacked Yes	2c	2,788$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc32…3290backed Yes	20c	2,678$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.62	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes	13c	2,631$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.71	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	8c	2,539$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.36	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	16c	2,532$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.16	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	2,530$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.33	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	2c	2,520$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	39c	2,508$986 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$985.64	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	9c	2,444$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	26c	2,362$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.05	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908e…89e9backed Yes	18c	2,295$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.82	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	7c	2,281$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.79	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49df…d594backed Yes	1c	2,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x746b…6315backed Yes	9c	2,164$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	43cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	6c	2,140$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.9	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…a9d5backed Yes	1c	2,093$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	3c	2,062$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	7c	2,000$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.19	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	3c	2,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	11c	2,000$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	5c	2,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x254b…18c5backed Yes	43c	2,000$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	2,000$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.4	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5752…62a3backed Yes	33c	1,856$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked No	75c	1,840$1,379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.56	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	14c	1,837$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.62	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes	16c	1,829$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	9c	1,807$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.48	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	17c	1,795$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	7c	1,748$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	14c	1,700$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.85	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	11c	1,682$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.91	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	3c	1,670$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.1	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,628$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.71	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked No	79c	1,621$1,274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.69	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	19c	1,620$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.92	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	13c	1,603$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.7	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,574$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.69	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	7c	1,555$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.84	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	12c	1,549$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.57	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	3c	1,512$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	6cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	10c	1,467$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.27	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	24c	1,448$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.61	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	1,421$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.6	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd72…dad1backed No	78c	1,400$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	14c	1,340$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.86	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6794…c10dbacked Yes	2c	1,326$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	3cpaid	+428%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event