Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f2412ed2f678c7f7bb19e78192e0225727d05e9de217d124116cb7cde8bd2b4

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $465,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $175,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $465,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	155,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	57,776$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	13,384$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.99	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	9,989$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	9,383$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	7c	8,792$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.43	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	7,623$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.35	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	6,453$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	6c	5,072$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.08	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,883$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	2c	3,682$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.35	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,672$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.03	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d1…4069backed Yes	8c	3,666$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,371$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	3c	3,160$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.93	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	6c	2,992$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	2,732$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.98	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	4c	2,702$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.58	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	2,344$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.71	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	1c	2,246$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,033$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	4c	2,027$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	4c	1,969$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	6c	1,891$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.23	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	1c	1,715$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.57	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,682$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.62	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,618$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	6c	1,612$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,481$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,386$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.95	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	8c	1,258$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,233$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,231$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.32	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	6c	1,224$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Yes	3c	1,195$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.23	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	6c	1,189$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.36	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,186$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,172$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.94	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea1…5c7cbacked Yes	7c	1,037$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.63	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	5c	1,008$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.85	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	5c	999.98$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	982.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…43d7backed Yes	7c	919.06$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	6c	872.2$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	3c	799.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	3c	778.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	771.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	3c	767.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes	3c	723.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	8c	708.23$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.63	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	4c	699.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	3c	664.71$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf680…2c59backed Yes	2c	647.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	7c	600$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	561.82$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	7c	500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	5c	450$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x386c…389ebacked Yes	6c	448.53$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8997…b5f3backed Yes	5c	431.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	5c	405.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	6c	390.16$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	6c	375.52$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	6c	362.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	359.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…61e2backed Yes	6c	349.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	3c	347.73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	6c	336.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	6c	313.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	6c	311.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f6…6feabacked Yes	6c	309.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	5c	299$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	6c	248.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcc0…4e85backed Yes	5c	229.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x861d…68ccbacked Yes	7c	220.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…cfcfbacked Yes	5c	219.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a00…d9f7backed Yes	7c	200.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	8c	142.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event