Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fcda0c6fbede095f7709e0aeb0f4176123c8bbf990192c24fbb564e1216ec34

Rebuilt 49 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $793,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $221,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,782 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	203,556$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.19	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	89,181$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,840$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.84	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	27,117$3,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,144.63	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	4c	15,679$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.93	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	11,592$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,975$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	1c	10,440$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	9,495$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	8,785$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.56	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed Yes	2c	8,351$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	1c	8,059$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.08	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	7,593$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	14c	6,939$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$941.9	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	6,455$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.77	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	5,932$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.11	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	5,922$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	5c	5,529$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.88	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	13c	5,223$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	10c	5,068$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	14c	5,001$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.95	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	0c	4,488$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	4,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.05	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	3,582$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.33	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	8c	3,400$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.76	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	3,101$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.6	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	12c	3,034$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.25	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	2,754$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.33	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	1c	2,668$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	4c	2,446$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.28	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	2,247$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.28	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	10c	2,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,920$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.93	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	1,911$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes	3c	1,836$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,834$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.71	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,754$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,666$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.69	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	12c	1,648$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,610$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.85	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,600$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.9	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	1,500$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.95	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	1,500$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	13c	1,420$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.82	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31c…0bd6backed Yes	13c	1,399$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.38	87	23%20 W · 67 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	1,398$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.78	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	7c	1,389$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	1,331$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	12c	1,230$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	8c	1,210$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	12c	1,117$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.73	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	14c	1,046$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,035$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	1,031$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.2	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,016$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.78	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	6c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	8c	1,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	12c	1,000$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	6c	999.97$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	10c	982.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes	1c	938.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	935.42$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.02	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	912.69$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	5c	912.49$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.86	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	5c	896.55$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.43	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	13c	873.5$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.97	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	5c	803.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	2c	802.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	802.03$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.04	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	800$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	12c	800$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	6c	760$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.92	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	14c	750$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes	14c	716.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	14c	700$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.21	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	7c	690.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8309…c08cbacked Yes	12c	689.99$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.56	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	624.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.77	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	604.31$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.92	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	598.79$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.9	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	11c	593.56$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.07	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8085…0243backed Yes	9c	550.15$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.63	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	3c	550$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	4c	532.3$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	6c	520.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29f5…78b7backed Yes	3c	517.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	12c	501.2$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.94	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	13c	500$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	14c	499.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.5	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	6c	462.34$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	5c	440$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	7c	436.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc32f…ddacbacked Yes	8c	398.04$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	10c	369.41$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3fa…94e8backed Yes	6c	357.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	5c	355.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event