Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3f90a85b4eda0573abb4a5dd54efb364b4c4de82d5dcff0415f432ddf1871c

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $938,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $574,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $938,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	4c	132,202$5,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,658.5	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	0c	37,864$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.54	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	30,200$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	12c	16,004$1,890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,890.47	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	7c	15,511$1,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,085.45	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	12,506$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.8	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	12,131$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	11,038$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	10,885$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.94	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	10,712$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.98	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	10,208$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984.07	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	9,422$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.06	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	21c	6,974$1,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,458.86	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	6,455$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.65	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	6,389$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.39	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	6,038$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	1c	5,784$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.72	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	6c	5,649$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.9	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	0c	5,280$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	5,244$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.27	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	17c	5,032$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	3c	5,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	4c	4,979$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.53	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	4,970$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.87	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	14c	4,671$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.85	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	4,570$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.23	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…768ebacked Yes	6c	4,359$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	5c	4,106$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.58	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	9c	4,082$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.32	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	3,483$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.49	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	12c	3,169$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.1	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	3,165$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.28	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,156$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.17	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	8c	3,141$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.69	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	3,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	3c	2,955$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	6c	2,730$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.21	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	2,671$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.35	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	2,351$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.34	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	2,289$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.96	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	4c	2,228$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,105$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.48	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	10c	2,081$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	15c	2,066$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.25	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	4c	2,020$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	6c	2,001$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.12	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254b…18c5backed Yes	19c	2,000$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,980$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.43	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,943$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.07	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes	11c	1,849$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	6c	1,840$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.92	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,816$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.75	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,806$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.9	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	4c	1,800$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.92	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	9c	1,800$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.31	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa85…1890backed Yes	6c	1,544$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	7c	1,534$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.97	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	1,500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6794…c10dbacked Yes	1c	1,383$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	3cpaid	+428%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa1…a24cbacked Yes	6c	1,349$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.6	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+227.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	5c	1,226$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.71	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	3c	1,209$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.47	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	10c	1,142$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.57	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04e…cea1backed Yes	14c	1,119$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.44	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5752…62a3backed Yes	21c	1,091$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	2c	1,060$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6550…fc98backed Yes	5c	1,007$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.62	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	6cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4405…6a37backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+300%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	8c	999.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Yes	2c	991.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	10c	970.04$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	5c	896.13$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.02	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	11c	872.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	3c	872.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	11c	734.76$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.91	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	2c	717.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…fd52backed Yes	5c	692.02$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	4c	681.3$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	6c	667.52$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	10c	639.89$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	637.75$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.31	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	3c	588.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	4c	583.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	9c	576.71$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	3c	555$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.58	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73f6…1d82backed Yes	3c	554$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	78c	543.7$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.28	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3537…45fdbacked Yes	19c	542.11$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes	19c	533.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6163…61c6backed Yes	12c	521.68$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.47	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb2…6b49backed Yes	3c	517.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f32…7b50backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	11c	500$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	7c	499.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	10c	497.49$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.56	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event