Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eaab2bf573fe2d9f86d9e63939e2c169faf3c509dcf082c176f396a75baf7bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 36c | 775.74$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.8 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 487.67$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 23c | 461.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 39c | 404.58$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 47c | 309.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 27c | 299.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 212.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 64c | 206.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 176.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 71c | 166.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 143.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 142.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 121.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 115.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…61afbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked No | 71c | 83.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…1156backed No | 63c | 82.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 80.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…500bbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 79.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd0…7f8cbacked No | 59c | 76.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f94…ce11backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 33c | 65.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked No | 52c | 65.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 36c | 64.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 70c | 53.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…0236backed No | 68c | 47.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 66c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 63c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…2d48backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…3ed3backed No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 62c | 29.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 48c | 29.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 63c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 60c | 26.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed No | 55c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 56c | 23.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed No | 72c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x804a…8c52backed No | 61c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…4061backed No | 65c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…f81dbacked No | 78c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20°F or higher on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 9°F or below on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 10-11°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 12-13°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 14-15°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.