Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20°F or higher on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb227797c7569effe40ad5f4d3ea865333e4ec060e14b94029fb4e2cda3fbe4b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 3c | 1,770$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 545.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 421.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 393.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 14c | 347.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 322.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked Yes | 24c | 310.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…c10bbacked Yes | 13c | 305$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…8c2cbacked Yes | 14c | 279.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…94dfbacked Yes | 13c | 278.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 15c | 267$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 79c | 229.79$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…5d7bbacked Yes | 21c | 195.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 18c | 184.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 181.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed No | 75c | 160.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 10c | 147.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 19c | 145.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…03f1backed Yes | 18c | 136.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 133.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 26c | 129.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 16c | 120.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 93.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 85.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 26c | 82.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes | 20c | 73.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…c8debacked Yes | 18c | 72.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 70c | 60.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33df…8988backed Yes | 32c | 59.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked No | 61c | 49.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…a329backed Yes | 27c | 48.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…ba10backed Yes | 40c | 40.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…e17fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 70c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20°F or higher on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 9°F or below on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 10-11°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 12-13°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 14-15°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.