Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5eed47f2cac3ec556f58ca2227c9789e56851052f6198d0c5fff948aff3456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeff…33bcbacked No | 53c | 9,200$4,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,876 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…43ecbacked Yes | 47c | 9,200$4,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,876 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 3c | 5,449$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.46 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,209$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 5c | 621.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 70c | 515.93$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 68c | 485.75$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.83 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc993…6a45backed No | 9c | 386.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 80c | 338.1$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…ef18backed No | 34c | 293.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…1156backed No | 66c | 254$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 47c | 205.34$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 33c | 203.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 200.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…81c4backed Yes | 63c | 189.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 186.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 186.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…500bbacked No | 42c | 156.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 75c | 145.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 138.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 45c | 132.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 62c | 128.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 128.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 48c | 125.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked Yes | 59c | 119.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 104.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 72c | 84.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 42c | 81.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 43c | 75.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 67.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 57c | 67.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1255backed Yes | 79c | 64.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 29c | 60.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 58.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 64c | 57.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…89e9backed Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…f81dbacked No | 38c | 54.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…1fdabacked No | 49c | 53.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 52c | 53.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47e…2c7fbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 31c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 42c | 48.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 50c | 48.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 47.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 46.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 45.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…94dfbacked Yes | 65c | 45.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 48c | 42.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 64c | 38.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 37.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 54c | 36.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…024bbacked No | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 49c | 33.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked Yes | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 29.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…841bbacked Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 25.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…cb02backed No | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 58c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a58…3147backed No | 66c | 20.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 56c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…4bf4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 59c | 18.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 16.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20°F or higher on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 9°F or below on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 10-11°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 12-13°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 14-15°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.