TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,936 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x584e…090fbacked No30c1,429$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.4947834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4c…ee3ebacked No2c1,031$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202611.5%3 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+476.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd17…f596backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes68c882.52$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.438176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes50c650.05$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.235016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No33c645.65$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8917243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes69c572.62$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x776b…1611backed No3c550$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc6…5585backed No51c515.21$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.161936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed Yes79c424.77$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9910150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes59c424.34$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.14325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes58c391.62$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.281631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed Yes76c385.55$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+78.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de5…c157backed Yes71c380.31$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.753735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes70c370.16$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.183332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes58c300$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12711436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes67c299.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No35c270.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.829922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes40c224.62$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.82944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes75c223.87$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.053129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No42c216.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.617,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab75…8e17backed Yes68c208.47$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.772441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No50c203.93$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1984759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No42c191.02$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No33c187.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes56c171$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.832,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes58c170.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4549543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97bf…b669backed Yes72c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.651566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes28c144.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.821,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes60c141.52$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes50c140.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.481,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c139.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed No37c135.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6113946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No28c134.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.221,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes59c134.68$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.441,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No27c133.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.541,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No42c131.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4234457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes47c124$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7219937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes60c123.08$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.776258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0d8…a90ebacked Yes42c119.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.292236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes64c118.65$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3643050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No31c106.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.631435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb39…4e72backed No38c106.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.961040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48a9…5fc8backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f7…b205backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x200d…7b9abacked No53c98.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes36c94.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cef…28e6backed Yes67c94.09$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.914100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No43c93.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.144553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No23c89.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes69c87.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1121847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1186…f5dfbacked Yes69c86.37$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No38c81.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdce…c141backed Yes60c78.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.29580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+69.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes33c75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.453435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes69c73.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.739139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes65c73.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5219133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdceb…53efbacked Yes65c73.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…b8dabacked No52c71.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes56c68.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.821127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d30…98ddbacked No31c65.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4198…d38fbacked Yes70c61.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.732759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7184…56d7backed Yes70c57.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bde…3eb2backed Yes72c55.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes29c55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.12240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1043…253abacked No72c53.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f48…9820backed No41c53.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3adc…972dbacked Yes63c52.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0510956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f38…6720backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac0…bee5backed No34c49.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No37c44.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.312,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df4…34d5backed Yes71c44.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes59c44.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.125536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes40c42.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8112624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d8…f72dbacked No49c42.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No45c40.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b43…1894backed Yes69c39.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80d…94b4backed Yes58c39.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc833…4d3bbacked No49c38.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338f…7a0dbacked Yes66c38.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5c…cd8abacked No32c38.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes79c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No29c36.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.462,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes37c36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.686538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No29c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.441926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x864e…f9f6backed Yes57c35.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x255b…7505backed Yes55c35.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes72c34.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…0058backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e2…328ebacked No40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.817644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.