Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311186f3497849f7473f7929e583d3b3371effed9c9e1ef85b3585557ab2a11f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc21…b2c9backed Yes | 0c | 28,491$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,990$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 29c | 944.48$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.47 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 37c | 379.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 61c | 343.93$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked No | 70c | 331.65$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 31c | 288.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 36c | 280.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 257.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked Yes | 33c | 250.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 54c | 240.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 70c | 220.47$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 46c | 216.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed Yes | 6c | 212.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 57c | 212.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…209ebacked Yes | 48c | 209.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4d…4535backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 192.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 182.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 34c | 177.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 176.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed No | 72c | 169.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 161.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 22c | 151.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 78c | 134$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 127.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 121.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 51c | 118.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 35c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 55c | 116.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 26c | 109.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 107.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 102.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c5…1138backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 40c | 95.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 69c | 86.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 84.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…9820backed Yes | 49c | 81.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 33c | 77.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 53c | 74.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 32c | 72.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 50c | 71.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 73c | 68.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 36c | 68.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 50c | 68.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…3bd2backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…edbbbacked Yes | 36c | 61.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…0236backed No | 57c | 59.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 38c | 58.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 51c | 58.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 41c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 43c | 56.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 39c | 55.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5c…1e57backed Yes | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 39c | 51.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…0e1cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 40.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes | 45c | 40.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fe…685cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…e58abacked No | 68c | 39.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…4b81backed Yes | 38c | 39.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 49c | 37.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 47c | 37.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 69c | 36.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 65c | 34.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 55c | 33.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked No | 69c | 32.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…627bbacked No | 67c | 30.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf739…70a5backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9d0bbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 46c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 66c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…c88bbacked No | 54c | 26.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.