Weather · resolved market
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281b7acc168fb3944f1d98813f2ba21226445e22ebaacf3210ba9bb3dff090a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $418,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0cd…75f7backed No | 1c | 26,168$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…82b1backed No | 2c | 17,275$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 54c | 16,632$8,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,699.11 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 48c | 12,121$5,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,865.07 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed No | 2c | 11,624$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…2529backed No | 2c | 11,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 17c | 9,049$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.8 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…5a51backed No | 1c | 6,955$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…1754backed No | 1c | 5,994$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed No | 1c | 5,873$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…4b81backed No | 1c | 5,778$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 49c | 5,097$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.6 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed No | 2c | 4,835$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…a5bfbacked No | 1c | 4,498$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 8c | 3,636$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4fafbacked No | 15c | 3,360$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 24c | 2,821$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…e41dbacked No | 2c | 2,668$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 2,594$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 5c | 2,576$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…2771backed No | 1c | 2,548$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…d595backed No | 1c | 2,499$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…79fcbacked No | 13c | 2,445$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 74c | 2,066$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed No | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,782$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 3c | 1,764$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…4035backed No | 1c | 1,686$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 31c | 1,611$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…46e7backed No | 1c | 1,599$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,584$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…5e6dbacked No | 2c | 1,460$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed No | 7c | 1,431$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…1d13backed No | 18c | 1,377$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…079ebacked No | 13c | 1,296$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,279$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 7c | 1,226$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 1,194$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed No | 5c | 1,160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 1,152$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…1dd1backed No | 2c | 1,151$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 1,081$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…287abacked No | 3c | 1,065$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6830…74a9backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 33c | 922.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 911$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.26 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 5c | 797.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +566.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Yes | 36c | 721.23$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 11c | 614.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 610$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 6c | 598$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 41c | 584.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.81 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…b2a6backed Yes | 76c | 570.13$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 63c | 553.18$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 8c | 532$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…3bd9backed No | 2c | 514.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 4c | 510$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked No | 42c | 504.77$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 8c | 502$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed No | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 9c | 494$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 9c | 491$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 75c | 484$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 4c | 476.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 5c | 470$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 20c | 432.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 4c | 421$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 8c | 385$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 4c | 366$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed No | 8c | 355$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 9c | 330$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…c208backed No | 9c | 329.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed No | 8c | 313.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 4c | 302$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed No | 8c | 301.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…3cadbacked Yes | 78c | 283.45$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…c735backed No | 4c | 279.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 5c | 264$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 6c | 264$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 46c | 264$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9f19backed No | 8c | 256.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 20c | 255.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…3893backed No | 15c | 252.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 6c | 251$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 8c | 247$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 6c | 246$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 8c | 237$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 9c | 236$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…f561backed No | 8c | 235.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 39c | 225.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 4c | 222.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 6c | 219$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 14c | 218.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +259.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 7c | 216$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.