Music · resolved market
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7208203a0fe65b589f2c72dd65a55ad2a7ac505b961bf645db38111a65b1100d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,387,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,466,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,387,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 641 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 0c | 99,400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 44,756$8,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,897.02 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 8c | 39,464$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 6c | 33,606$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked No | 8c | 32,164$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…83a8backed No | 3c | 30,755$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 7c | 19,176$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 31c | 18,553$5,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,695.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed No | 8c | 12,702$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 28c | 12,662$3,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 21c | 12,586$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 78c | 12,370$9,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked No | 26c | 11,460$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 40c | 11,297$4,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,506.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…9977backed No | 13c | 10,785$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Yes | 28c | 10,071$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,275.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 28c | 9,722$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,989.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 12c | 9,388$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9a…9cc7backed No | 32c | 9,216$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 42c | 9,144$3,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed No | 4c | 9,099$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.63 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 18c | 8,189$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 1c | 7,600$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 28c | 7,158$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,158.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed No | 71c | 6,400$4,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 72c | 6,000$4,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 3c | 5,983$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 1c | 5,526$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 47c | 5,128$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60d…4e95backed No | 10c | 5,014$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603e…43febacked No | 4c | 4,935$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 13c | 4,929$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 29c | 4,619$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,287.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 4,574$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 2c | 4,378$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 4,028$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 69c | 4,002$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 1c | 3,940$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 16c | 3,871$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce79…8676backed No | 42c | 3,865$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 10c | 3,829$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.88 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…a0d4backed No | 4c | 3,613$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…48f9backed No | 2c | 3,387$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 30c | 3,356$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.51 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…43adbacked Yes | 29c | 3,325$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,184$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed No | 9c | 3,148$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 36c | 3,000$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed No | 9c | 3,000$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked No | 49c | 2,880$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…2c12backed No | 1c | 2,854$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc583…d812backed Yes | 31c | 2,853$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 45c | 2,762$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.44 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 5c | 2,745$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 2,703$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.35 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes | 36c | 2,553$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 34c | 2,500$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.15 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed No | 73c | 2,500$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 8c | 2,474$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…7f3bbacked No | 2c | 2,468$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 23c | 2,400$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.52 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…5b9abacked No | 10c | 2,330$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 35c | 2,327$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5515backed Yes | 75c | 2,132$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Yes | 32c | 2,015$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…bc8fbacked No | 26c | 1,975$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed Yes | 32c | 1,945$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 49c | 1,931$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,927$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 3c | 1,890$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 19c | 1,867$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 1,809$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked No | 66c | 1,772$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…e437backed No | 1c | 1,763$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…a660backed No | 70c | 1,709$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,706$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 2c | 1,677$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 10c | 1,641$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.53 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 20c | 1,628$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 57c | 1,618$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,534$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked No | 3c | 1,530$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…61fdbacked No | 34c | 1,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 64c | 1,500$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked No | 71c | 1,479$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 28c | 1,458$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.28 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 4c | 1,413$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…110bbacked No | 75c | 1,407$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 27c | 1,398$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 31c | 1,387$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 1,356$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.31 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 12c | 1,354$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 69c | 1,320$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked No | 16c | 1,298$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…a2b3backed Yes | 77c | 1,255$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 46c | 1,226$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes | 66c | 1,209$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 29c | 1,188$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.