TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,387,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,466,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,387,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 641 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x357e…2a0cbacked No0c99,400$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No20c44,756$8,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,897.023339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No8c39,464$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,133.352951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed No6c33,606$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked No8c32,164$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.013040%12 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+110.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8499…83a8backed No3c30,755$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No7c19,176$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.042842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+92.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No31c18,553$5,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,695.331275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed No8c12,702$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No28c12,662$3,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,608.431233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No21c12,586$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes78c12,370$9,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked No26c11,460$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,017.07825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No40c11,297$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c5…9977backed No13c10,785$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Yes28c10,071$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,275.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+163.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes28c9,722$2,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,989.2911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No12c9,388$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.21020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-66%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b9a…9cc7backed No32c9,216$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes42c9,144$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,310.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed No4c9,099$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.63296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed No18c8,189$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.621464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+162.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No1c7,600$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes28c7,158$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,158.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed No71c6,400$4,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No72c6,000$4,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked No3c5,983$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No1c5,526$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No47c5,128$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.2550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60d…4e95backed No10c5,014$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603e…43febacked No4c4,935$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No13c4,929$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.59911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed Yes29c4,619$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,287.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No2c4,574$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.231478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked No2c4,378$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No10c4,028$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383414.9%2 W · 39 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No69c4,002$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed No1c3,940$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.96616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No16c3,871$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce79…8676backed No42c3,865$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No10c3,829$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.883534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0733…a0d4backed No4c3,613$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ca…48f9backed No2c3,387$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes30c3,356$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.516943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f55…43adbacked Yes29c3,325$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes35c3,184$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed No9c3,148$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes36c3,000$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+107.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed No9c3,000$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b02…e5ffbacked No49c2,880$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b26…2c12backed No1c2,854$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc583…d812backed Yes31c2,853$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No45c2,762$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.445836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked No5c2,745$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c2,703$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.3524732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes36c2,553$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes34c2,500$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.15362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No73c2,500$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No8c2,474$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…7f3bbacked No2c2,468$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No23c2,400$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.522814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa02…5b9abacked No10c2,330$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed No35c2,327$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes75c2,132$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Yes32c2,015$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+208.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed No1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed No25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…bc8fbacked No26c1,975$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7119…7132backed Yes32c1,945$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes49c1,931$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes78c1,927$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59cd…716fbacked No3c1,890$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed No19c1,867$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.022133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No33c1,809$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.85100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x385f…a21fbacked No66c1,772$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ef…e437backed No1c1,763$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc294…a660backed No70c1,709$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes31c1,706$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed No2c1,677$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…8cf3backed No10c1,641$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.533158.1%18 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+32.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed No20c1,628$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No57c1,618$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes70c1,534$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked No3c1,530$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…61fdbacked No34c1,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes64c1,500$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked No71c1,479$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes28c1,458$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.282867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+61.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked No4c1,413$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…110bbacked No75c1,407$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes27c1,398$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes31c1,387$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes37c1,356$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.3110517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No12c1,354$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No69c1,320$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.51050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked No16c1,298$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ee…a2b3backed Yes77c1,255$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked Yes46c1,226$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes66c1,209$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes29c1,188$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+195.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.