TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Fritz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,753,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,849,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,753,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 752 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Alcaraz58c185,178$108,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,135.4924544.9%110 W · 135 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fritz34c179,319$60,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,495.038,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Alcaraz71c83,257$58,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,547.781747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fritz34c68,647$23,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,653.912,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Fritz20c54,732$10,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,723.822037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fritz30c53,915$16,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,378.1111,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Fritz26c49,617$12,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,929.3816644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alcaraz53c49,179$26,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,956.276,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Fritz9c43,129$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.0210443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Alcaraz66c36,753$24,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,445.446549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Fritz39c31,766$12,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,236.543818.4%7 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fritz40c31,265$12,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,596.077,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Fritz38c30,709$11,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,579.557939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Fritz30c30,707$9,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,204.014843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Fritz19c30,494$5,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.2276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Fritz38c27,762$10,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,456.792,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Alcaraz63c26,197$16,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,730.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Fritz51c20,664$10,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,515.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8758…fc2dbacked Fritz28c20,297$5,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,633.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Fritz33c20,125$6,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,684.845253.8%28 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Alcaraz57c17,000$9,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,370.766649.5%330 W · 336 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Fritz59c16,622$9,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,789.8216242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Fritz18c15,887$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.6510845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2746…f918backed Alcaraz43c13,518$5,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,705.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Alcaraz44c12,487$5,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,001.34040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b3…b4ddbacked Alcaraz70c12,055$8,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,582.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Fritz18c11,980$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.410837%40 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Fritz4c11,775$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.433354.5%18 W · 15 L+7.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+65.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Fritz18c10,947$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.48429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Fritz24c10,339$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.271,18848.9%581 W · 607 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Fritz19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Fritz55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.9840%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Alcaraz45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Alcaraz50c9,411$4,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,716.715339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Alcaraz72c8,648$6,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.721,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Fritz22c8,195$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.64930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Fritz47c8,149$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.8518740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Alcaraz56c7,957$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.052152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe345…5479backed Alcaraz3c7,810$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,575.71100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Fritz11c7,539$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.8439851%203 W · 195 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Fritz19c7,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42522629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Alcaraz66c7,167$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4707057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f20…0360backed Fritz19c7,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc30b…1b6dbacked Fritz20c6,958$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.435843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Fritz19c6,730$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.711343.4%49 W · 64 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Fritz18c6,650$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Fritz19c6,597$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.351435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Fritz41c6,066$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.592,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Alcaraz71c5,856$4,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.921,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0d…e220backed Fritz36c5,759$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Alcaraz69c5,300$3,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64360055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Alcaraz61c5,200$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.551723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Alcaraz80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa18c…01bcbacked Alcaraz78c5,000$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Fritz50c4,973$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.866046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Alcaraz52c4,533$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.975151%26 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Alcaraz56c4,174$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.9343948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Fritz19c4,153$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7892733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed Fritz19c4,055$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Alcaraz45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001,44448.8%705 W · 739 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7d…c233backed Fritz19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Alcaraz52c4,000$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.9544360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Fritz33c3,968$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.4464455.3%356 W · 288 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Alcaraz80c3,951$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.23452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11be…cbabbacked Fritz19c3,922$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.17728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Alcaraz80c3,921$3,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.261758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa68f…37e2backed Fritz20c3,632$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Fritz30c3,605$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4deb…8d3dbacked Fritz56c3,543$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Fritz22c3,511$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.3675547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Fritz19c3,505$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Alcaraz45c3,353$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.555630.4%17 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Fritz19c3,345$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.591844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Alcaraz67c3,219$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.014146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed Alcaraz50c3,209$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.765040%20 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked Fritz34c3,112$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.4815141.7%63 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6b6…f090backed Alcaraz70c3,047$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1c…a94dbacked Alcaraz69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9302733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae87…e848backed Alcaraz44c2,951$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.431464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Fritz40c2,928$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.2548352.2%252 W · 231 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+33.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Fritz20c2,881$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.244831.3%15 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb9…f6b3backed Alcaraz44c2,841$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.881926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Fritz19c2,738$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2125722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb175…b65cbacked Fritz16c2,726$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8640…0e7dbacked Fritz23c2,660$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001675%12 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Alcaraz52c2,595$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.3269249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Fritz19c2,572$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.491,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Alcaraz47c2,570$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ec…f5b5backed Alcaraz57c2,548$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.712665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Fritz23c2,517$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.123557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47ca…88dbbacked Alcaraz45c2,446$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Fritz18c2,400$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed Alcaraz46c2,370$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.858050%40 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Alcaraz41c2,359$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.2944754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…487dbacked Fritz33c2,241$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Alcaraz60c2,236$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.045151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1932…4e5abacked Alcaraz75c2,217$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.11275%9 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Alcaraz46c2,177$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.348530.6%26 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f1…9b81backed Alcaraz47c2,162$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.693336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Fritz19c2,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3708231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.