Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe303c2de43d231b2d0714dc0ed334dfbb6f51cb47d1a7a4d1423313100a29687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $601,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $560,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 50c | 60,779$30,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,636.19 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 0c | 31,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 19c | 16,601$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.04 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 44c | 14,058$6,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,129.41 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 46c | 13,945$6,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,415.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 25c | 12,426$3,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.34 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 63c | 12,000$7,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,569.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 38c | 11,853$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,342.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…ba3bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,707$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 5c | 10,500$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 30c | 9,219$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.66 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 7c | 8,942$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.34 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes | 2c | 8,242$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 42c | 7,951$3,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,378.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 77c | 7,821$5,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.57 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 46c | 7,179$3,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,870.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 57c | 6,140$3,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,492.33 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 48c | 5,875$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.1 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 28c | 5,799$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 38c | 5,675$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 27c | 5,500$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.23 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…ae9bbacked Yes | 30c | 5,320$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…1cb7backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked No | 48c | 4,911$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 50c | 4,890$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 60c | 4,663$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 62c | 4,493$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.57 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 8c | 4,277$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yes | 13c | 4,175$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 5c | 4,142$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,003$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 20c | 3,364$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.07 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 47c | 3,222$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.1 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 60c | 3,028$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,395$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 51c | 2,383$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.56 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,360$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 36c | 2,344$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.15 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 30c | 2,222$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…a094backed Yes | 6c | 2,161$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…835ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,141$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 19c | 2,118$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed Yes | 54c | 2,036$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 19c | 1,999$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,974$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.51 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 61c | 1,850$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 12c | 1,766$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 66c | 1,704$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.19 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed No | 30c | 1,682$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 23c | 1,601$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 1,552$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.96 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes | 65c | 1,502$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 67c | 1,444$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.22 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 61c | 1,413$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.52 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 1,400$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,374$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 62c | 1,356$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…988dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,346$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked No | 52c | 1,319$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 41c | 1,280$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…5bd2backed Yes | 3c | 1,268$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 32c | 1,226$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…66a5backed Yes | 3c | 1,210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 1,195$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.97 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 33c | 1,190$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 5c | 1,049$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 29c | 1,046$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd649…6bffbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 955.45$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.84 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 39c | 926.08$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 27c | 912.44$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 16c | 813.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…a686backed No | 30c | 800$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed No | 39c | 757.78$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 2c | 733.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 26c | 724.45$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.27 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 722.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed No | 47c | 700$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.27 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 17c | 699.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 678.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 73c | 669.69$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 28c | 666.44$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed No | 25c | 647.44$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.58 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 8c | 618.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 65c | 595.45$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.87 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 48c | 585.55$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf35a…6617backed No | 55c | 570.72$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 67c | 533.98$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…0012backed Yes | 11c | 529.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 16c | 529.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…e887backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 522$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 41c | 521.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.58 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.