Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6a0acd6981e0a824ee8819bd48cacdf5eb509130daa39d796c515501880fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 2c | 12,150$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 41c | 9,219$3,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,451.36 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 31c | 8,598$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,964.2 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 80c | 8,579$6,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.65 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 39c | 7,627$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,656.76 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 0c | 7,339$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 33c | 7,268$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,889.29 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 38c | 7,031$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,338.08 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 71c | 4,210$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 35c | 4,000$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 57c | 3,721$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,136.96 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…1cb7backed Yes | 56c | 3,300$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 60c | 3,209$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.65 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 46c | 2,866$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.09 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,727$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.12 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 55c | 2,299$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.57 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 59c | 2,032$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.33 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 63c | 1,886$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.79 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 50c | 1,805$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.39 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…ae9bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,793$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 20c | 1,598$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.55 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 44c | 1,552$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.94 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 1,552$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.21 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 30c | 1,546$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.67 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,375$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 68c | 1,159$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.48 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 44c | 1,132$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.98 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…3d61backed Yes | 36c | 1,066$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 50c | 1,056$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked No | 58c | 945.22$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes | 80c | 809.7$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 42c | 733.3$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.37 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 37c | 720$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.99 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 5c | 632.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 30c | 610.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.91 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 18c | 576.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 60c | 555$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 19c | 550.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes | 44c | 534$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked No | 64c | 530.48$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes | 35c | 487.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 37c | 475.31$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…f687backed No | 20c | 469.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 424.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 61c | 421.23$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.85 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 61c | 406.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed No | 50c | 398.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 78c | 385.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 382.06$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 68c | 349.99$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 38c | 340$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.4 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 61c | 329.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 52c | 319.53$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 30c | 314.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…77bcbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 280.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 45c | 240.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 239.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.37 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 235$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 36c | 232.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 44c | 227$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…6435backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 77c | 194.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 31c | 180$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed Yes | 58c | 173.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 20c | 169$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 24c | 165.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 76c | 158.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fe…ce41backed Yes | 38c | 144.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…56e6backed No | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 38c | 127.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed No | 37c | 122.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 59c | 118.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…a718backed Yes | 28c | 110.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…37bfbacked Yes | 78c | 103.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 41c | 102.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…4f52backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…46f9backed Yes | 36c | 85.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc378…e4a8backed Yes | 78c | 83.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 40c | 81.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.