Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd76ea954f218f2e1fc86409590ab86e9bb137bbd9de25f6bc09865409f313be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 0c | 75,381$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…66a5backed Yes | 0c | 53,478$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 2c | 13,831$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,800$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,302$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…18b5backed Yes | 1c | 4,274$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 1c | 2,165$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 2,101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 5c | 2,013$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 80c | 1,299$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 4c | 626.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 596.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 534.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 5c | 489.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes | 4c | 463.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…0a4dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…02c8backed Yes | 14c | 276.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 5c | 249.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 8c | 221.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 176.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…a094backed Yes | 9c | 139.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…f687backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Yes | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…8dd0backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…ae87backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.