Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e71b0eaf478decb906b0d8eae40b32e2fc4ab3c2e24f7cee2b952ad1af5588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 2,807$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,777$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 14c | 471.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 7c | 275$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 150.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 134.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked Yes | 60c | 131.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 59c | 85.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 53c | 83.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 75.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 47c | 60.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…3bd2backed Yes | 51c | 48.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 48c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 27c | 43.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 44c | 40.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 45c | 39.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 47c | 36.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 34.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…4395backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 30.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 53c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed No | 76c | 29.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 45c | 25.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 60c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 17°F or below on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or higher on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.