Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbccc1d1ca26e44fe29960eaa85acc54a522b79cf28b385a62b7c4ced653ca015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 1,774$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,687$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.19 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,069$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 75c | 898.78$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.02 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b59…179dbacked Yes | 37c | 811.43$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…537bbacked No | 51c | 657.88$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 47c | 649.18$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.86 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 586.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 51c | 531.7$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.55 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 75c | 510.31$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.24 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 56c | 509.95$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…bf12backed Yes | 27c | 381.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Yes | 61c | 379$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed No | 69c | 363.11$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 62c | 325$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 11c | 284.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.6 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 29c | 283.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.12 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 64c | 262$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 67c | 251.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 23c | 235.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked No | 73c | 198.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked Yes | 20c | 181.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 67c | 159.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 48c | 159.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed Yes | 37c | 155.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 14c | 155.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.87 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 30c | 150.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 39c | 145.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 137.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked No | 73c | 136.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 33c | 114.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 41c | 101.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 26c | 100.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 92.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 75c | 90.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…afa7backed Yes | 58c | 86.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 71.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 41c | 68.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…67bebacked Yes | 26c | 66.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 42c | 54.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5de…d515backed No | 55c | 54.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 69c | 53.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…e55bbacked No | 58c | 38.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…27c2backed Yes | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…dbc1backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 72c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 65c | 26.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…f481backed Yes | 48c | 23.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 17°F or below on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or higher on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.