TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe732…898fbacked Yes2c6,727$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.671947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9800…4b81backed Yes1c2,538$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes5c2,400$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1293534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes56c1,835$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.9212125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes71c1,289$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.658176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed No50c1,104$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.634348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202611.5%3 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+476.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd17…f596backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No33c816.77$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.2747834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes70c486.68$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.376538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No27c468.41$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.1117243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes60c332.55$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.63129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No35c322.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.54,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes42c280.04$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3915027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f8…af3fbacked No49c236.14$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.592828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No34c224.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.71,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes35c207.79$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5665625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes52c199.03$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7932147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes59c194.11$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes62c185.28$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4730144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab75…8e17backed Yes65c184.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.642441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes76c180.38$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.711631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes71c169.16$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.77950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d1…59f9backed Yes55c168.85$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.311553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97bf…b669backed No63c155$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.371566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes24c152.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.081,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes67c148.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No56c145.03$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.121,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes77c124.78$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6325519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c115.22$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.853,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52c…33a6backed Yes49c110.54$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.721729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea89…26abbacked No30c106$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.222369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes76c105$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.453831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes69c102.81$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7113946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes46c101.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0552533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9895942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x08fc…3c2dbacked No36c99.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.645540%22 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes63c91.81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes62c81.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes62c78.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4560851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f3…3595backed No29c78.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.093743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No58c76.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7484759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes41c73.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed Yes57c69.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.631631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-54.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes43c69.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e02…94dfbacked Yes38c66.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc282…cd6abacked Yes30c65.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.682842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No42c65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5544553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes46c64.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes19c61.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No41c60.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.82,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c54.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No36c52.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8443050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes23c51.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948d…1a11backed No34c50.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.431376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed No33c50.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.756258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f37…0a9ebacked No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c43.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes44c42.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.648038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ab…d485backed Yes46c42.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick50cpaid-66.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes48c42.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1491…9f27backed No70c41.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.213164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes33c40.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No30c40.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4155919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde76…8992backed No25c40.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.991060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8cf…4395backed Yes57c39.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.09650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302d…cd3fbacked Yes43c36.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5de…d515backed Yes78c33.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked No59c33.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.818036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes61c31.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3918530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb54…2c07backed Yes74c31.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes64c31.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No33c30.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4513223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes57c30.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65f9…4425backed Yes66c30.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207266.7%48 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No63c29.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.92,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864e…f9f6backed No35c29.14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325e…9d89backed No72c27.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.532433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No55c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.154953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb099…df6cbacked Yes69c26.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…dbc1backed No39c26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.861118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-52.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No56c25.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1646743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4c…669fbacked Yes69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9736…64b8backed No64c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2810151.5%52 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x908e…89e9backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-83.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.