Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa364fcaf51812b8f54e8f73aef75e2dc19a6ee0b2cfea0f973363822a0afa020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,727$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…4b81backed Yes | 1c | 2,538$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 5c | 2,400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 56c | 1,835$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.92 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 71c | 1,289$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.65 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 50c | 1,104$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.63 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 33c | 816.77$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.27 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 70c | 486.68$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.37 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 27c | 468.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.11 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 60c | 332.55$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 322.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.65 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 42c | 280.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 49c | 236.14$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 34c | 224.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 35c | 207.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 52c | 199.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 194.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 62c | 185.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 65c | 184.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 76c | 180.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 71c | 169.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 55c | 168.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed No | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 152.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 67c | 148.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 145.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 77c | 124.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 115.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 49c | 110.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 30c | 106$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 76c | 105$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 69c | 102.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 46c | 101.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked No | 36c | 99.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 63c | 91.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 62c | 81.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 62c | 78.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 29c | 78.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 76.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 41c | 73.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 57c | 69.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 43c | 69.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…94dfbacked Yes | 38c | 66.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 30c | 65.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 61.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 41c | 60.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 54.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 36c | 52.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 23c | 51.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed No | 34c | 50.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 33c | 50.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f37…0a9ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 43.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 44c | 42.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…d485backed Yes | 46c | 42.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 48c | 42.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 70c | 41.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 40.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 30c | 40.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 25c | 40.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…4395backed Yes | 57c | 39.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302d…cd3fbacked Yes | 43c | 36.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5de…d515backed Yes | 78c | 33.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 59c | 33.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 61c | 31.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…2c07backed Yes | 74c | 31.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 33c | 30.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 29.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…f9f6backed No | 35c | 29.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…9d89backed No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 69c | 26.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…dbc1backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 56c | 25.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…669fbacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…89e9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 17°F or below on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or higher on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.