Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0a2720948780cb6b6f6be4fb02b56df22e5eab8610773fe3ddd4547dc22453f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 46c | 956.12$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.68 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 802.05$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 64c | 312.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 16c | 310.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed No | 29c | 278.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 52c | 251.63$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 17c | 250.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.72 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…d17dbacked Yes | 68c | 247.19$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 56c | 186.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 178.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4d…4535backed Yes | 53c | 152.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 24c | 150.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 30c | 115.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 59c | 103.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 96.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 36c | 92.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 24c | 91.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…6b39backed Yes | 19c | 84.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 43c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 37c | 79.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 64c | 78.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 62c | 56.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 49c | 52.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…c88bbacked No | 65c | 51.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked No | 46c | 51.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes | 69c | 50.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 46c | 48.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed No | 52c | 47.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 50c | 47.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 50c | 45.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 80c | 45.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 60c | 44.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked Yes | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 52c | 39.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed Yes | 35c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 38c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 59c | 26.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…d304backed No | 63c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 65c | 16.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.