Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d7979601d309c4eaea927953131e38041b2e0bb7574f63f01ce45a0275c833c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd45a…eac9backed No | 0c | 3,187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed Yes | 7c | 2,005$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.18 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,598$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.2 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,079$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.67 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 973.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.92 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 46c | 766.42$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.28 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 15c | 689.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 74c | 585.97$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.15 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…ac53backed Yes | 6c | 521.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 4c | 466.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 25c | 450$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 70c | 434.36$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 6c | 323.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.15 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 306.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 41c | 272.45$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.77 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 38c | 235$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…fef1backed No | 63c | 231.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 225.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 29c | 215.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…f86cbacked Yes | 60c | 180.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…a822backed Yes | 73c | 161.87$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 158.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 26c | 141$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 45c | 121.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…70bbbacked Yes | 49c | 119.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 30c | 118.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 39c | 118.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4d…4535backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 73c | 108.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 75c | 99.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdce…c141backed Yes | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 28c | 52.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 51c | 46.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…e5acbacked Yes | 47c | 42.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…6213backed Yes | 34c | 41.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 57c | 40.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 77c | 38.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 64c | 35.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…f82abacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7184…56d7backed Yes | 45c | 31.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 77c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 66c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…d00cbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 15.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.