Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dd1e6a7e9350b4ff52086e3305383ab5be9e2f4c8174da37eb1e9f95787465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 26c | 12,970$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,566.17 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 4,244$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.17 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 30c | 3,955$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.67 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 3,693$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.64 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 43c | 3,299$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.42 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,759$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.73 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 50c | 2,667$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.01 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 79c | 2,618$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.28 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,145$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 76c | 1,835$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.4 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 34c | 1,504$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.89 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,441$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.82 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 41c | 1,314$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.18 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 74c | 1,292$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.18 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 76c | 1,110$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.05 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 999.97$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.98 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 2c | 921.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 66c | 875.09$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.29 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 24c | 836$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.9 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 778.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.11 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 4c | 717.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 64c | 675$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.16 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 25c | 630.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.16 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 19c | 550.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 76c | 538.66$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 24c | 530.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 42c | 513.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.11 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 30c | 496.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.44 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 45c | 478.37$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.89 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…545cbacked Yes | 26c | 440.63$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 76c | 408.72$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 66c | 377.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 39c | 373.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 356.05$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.79 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 25c | 352.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 29c | 340$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 30c | 334.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 21c | 330.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.66 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 322.35$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.21 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 319.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.46 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 47c | 287.85$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 53c | 284.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 22c | 252.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 30c | 239.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…572dbacked Yes | 50c | 215.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 53c | 213.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…aa26backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…fe95backed Yes | 36c | 186.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 25c | 168.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 158.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 78c | 155.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 10c | 151.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa893…7ca1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 149.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked Yes | 31c | 146.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 141.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 33c | 132.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 131.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Yes | 23c | 130.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…3fecbacked Yes | 29c | 130.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 29c | 129.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…3f35backed Yes | 27c | 116.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…852dbacked Yes | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked No | 65c | 108.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 26c | 107.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 56c | 99.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…39e3backed Yes | 28c | 99.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 98.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed Yes | 65c | 94.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked No | 42c | 94.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 23c | 90.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 84.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…291ebacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…9438backed Yes | 28c | 79.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed No | 71c | 78.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 73.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…e9e2backed Yes | 64c | 72.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…0ee0backed Yes | 30c | 62.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…fb66backed Yes | 34c | 57.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…0bcfbacked Yes | 33c | 56.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…0486backed Yes | 30c | 56.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed Yes | 72c | 55.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…a101backed Yes | 21c | 55.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 55.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6806…1429backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 39c | 54.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.