Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20de118eeab991b138ebb0482219b9193b9ad7c52ac63da211f3012030be28bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 3c | 13,157$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,716$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,462$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,424$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes | 3c | 4,048$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 3,600$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 80c | 3,077$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.38 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 10c | 3,002$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.41 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,865$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 9c | 2,716$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 74c | 2,681$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.23 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,393$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,298$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…329dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,161$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…f412backed Yes | 1c | 2,144$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 69c | 2,138$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.52 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 4c | 2,117$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,939$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,922$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…cc21backed Yes | 2c | 1,439$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes | 4c | 1,345$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes | 4c | 1,178$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 2c | 1,061$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 1,041$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed No | 58c | 1,010$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.61 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 5c | 935.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 830.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 7c | 655$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 653.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 650.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…9524backed Yes | 15c | 620.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 616.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 564.28$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.43 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 7c | 555$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 9c | 545.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…1399backed Yes | 2c | 540.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ee…82bdbacked Yes | 6c | 535.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 496.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…7de4backed Yes | 6c | 494.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99f…d80abacked Yes | 17c | 424.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked Yes | 7c | 412.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…572dbacked Yes | 14c | 405.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 43c | 400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…c77fbacked Yes | 6c | 399.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 376.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 5c | 372.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Yes | 34c | 293.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 6c | 288.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 8c | 284.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 255.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Yes | 23c | 249.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…3560backed Yes | 26c | 233.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 5c | 210.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 26c | 192.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 6c | 180.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 21c | 160.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed Yes | 16c | 159.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa893…7ca1backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes | 21c | 126.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…5044backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…b06ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 33c | 74.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 22c | 54.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…06cbbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…0ee0backed No | 75c | 22.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…d398backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…a507backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.