Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea057a9cd5a4d4d5a90ef77bacdfebeda1ba7606c85534272bbc5088eb2db23c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 29c | 46,500$13,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,663.83 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 71c | 15,383$10,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,405.66 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,438$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…b673backed Yes | 12c | 8,417$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 52c | 8,216$4,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,958.63 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed No | 78c | 8,201$6,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.38 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 51c | 7,340$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.73 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 6,865$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,900$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,748$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 4c | 5,623$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.62 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703f…2921backed Yes | 4c | 5,402$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 52c | 5,400$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.49 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 15c | 4,565$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.87 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yes | 6c | 4,299$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,632$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,540$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 3,433$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.63 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 46c | 3,302$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.34 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 53c | 3,154$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.53 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ee…82bdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,020$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 2,485$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.87 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes | 25c | 2,403$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 25c | 2,397$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.93 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,283$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 26c | 2,137$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes | 2c | 1,658$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,558$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.56 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 6c | 1,419$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 1,273$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 9c | 1,248$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 21c | 1,098$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 1c | 1,067$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,047$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 10c | 1,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861c…0ae5backed Yes | 8c | 964.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 3c | 851.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 28c | 815.57$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 767.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 75c | 694.18$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.55 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6806…1429backed Yes | 9c | 666$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…92c3backed Yes | 8c | 614.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 78c | 589.64$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 577.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 10c | 568.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 528.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…64d1backed Yes | 10c | 526.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 496.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…5623backed Yes | 5c | 468.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 50c | 444$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…545cbacked Yes | 9c | 441.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…41b5backed Yes | 15c | 390.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…8b31backed Yes | 15c | 334.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 45c | 320.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…35cbbacked Yes | 8c | 317$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 4c | 309.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed Yes | 14c | 289$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…52a0backed Yes | 7c | 272.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 27c | 271.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…572dbacked Yes | 38c | 262.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…dc31backed Yes | 4c | 261.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 4c | 260.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 40c | 247.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 36c | 240$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3d47backed Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 9c | 225.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…2b01backed Yes | 10c | 197.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Yes | 48c | 187.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed Yes | 50c | 186.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…a011backed Yes | 12c | 166.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Yes | 10c | 163.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes | 16c | 163.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 16c | 162.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…a9a0backed Yes | 9c | 162.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed Yes | 9c | 155.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes | 41c | 154.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2369…d8bebacked Yes | 7c | 147.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…97dcbacked Yes | 8c | 140.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74e…f9e9backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…9f55backed Yes | 8c | 127.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…9e97backed Yes | 10c | 126.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 51c | 124.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 10c | 105.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…3715backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 53c | 95.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.