TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35e3…fe95

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Movies, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 60 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+72.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.11
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+177.1%+$27.56
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17.17
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+153.4%+$17.04
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.97
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+37.5%+$4.37
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+222.6%+$59.3
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+168.7%+$23.11
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+181.5%+$120.49
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+127.9%+$83.68
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+84.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.38
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.7
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+363.5%+$105.97
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+306.1%+$111.8
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13.01
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$18.43
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6.01
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+56.3%+$8.55
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+165.7%+$30.96
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+47.4%+$7.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+153.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: 49ers (-5.5)backed Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$37.25
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.62
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+100%+$10.42
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+127.3%+$16.35
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$38.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulane vs. Ole Missbacked Tulane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.31
Missouri State vs. Arkansas Statebacked Missouri State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$11.11
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$11.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+100%+$19.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+27.9%+$63.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$18.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.