Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8962a594b344214bc8bcc4043698214466412b7ebdfb1547bb5e99ca19de9285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 1c | 10,691$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 2c | 4,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,574$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.05 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 20c | 2,497$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.95 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…a4f8backed Yes | 37c | 1,970$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,857$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 20c | 1,506$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.6 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,478$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,379$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 1,303$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,264$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,205$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.38per pick | 45cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 76c | 1,172$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 1,088$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 23c | 1,009$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…ca32backed Yes | 5c | 990$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 16c | 962$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 947.04$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 814.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 16c | 803$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 782.26$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 73c | 724.61$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.06 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 721.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 16c | 709$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 14c | 707$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 16c | 681$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 680$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 19c | 665.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 16c | 661$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 648.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 16c | 644$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 635.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 628.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…6ee8backed Yes | 3c | 587.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 76c | 561.54$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 16c | 556$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 16c | 555$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked Yes | 16c | 543.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 16c | 542$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 16c | 540$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 16c | 535$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 524.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 78c | 522.58$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 16c | 514$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 481.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 67c | 470.8$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 16c | 461$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 16c | 430$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 16c | 430$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 70c | 428.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 18c | 421.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 76c | 420.74$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 16c | 419$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 14c | 414.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 20c | 393$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 391.41$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 16c | 380$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 16c | 376$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 30c | 368.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 49c | 366.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 15c | 358$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 15c | 358$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 357.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes | 16c | 351$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 20c | 343.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 16c | 341$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 16c | 339$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed Yes | 30c | 336.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 8c | 316.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 16c | 315$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 16c | 314$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 16c | 309$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 69c | 300.4$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes | 17c | 299$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 16c | 299$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 16c | 295$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…20a5backed Yes | 6c | 290.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 28c | 283.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 16c | 283$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yes | 31c | 279$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 26c | 256.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 16c | 254$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed No | 79c | 252.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 16c | 251.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 16c | 248$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 16c | 237$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 17c | 226$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 72c | 217.57$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 16c | 213$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 16c | 203$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…8b08backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…e610backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.