Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87020e07b30921e93db4473ccd2f63d4d98b2766eee571eadc9552b6cc521e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 2c | 5,534$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 77c | 2,514$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.64 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,365$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,049$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2e…b704backed Yes | 46c | 950.93$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 74c | 933.83$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 871.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 840.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 799.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 755.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 67c | 751.17$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 731.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 700.1$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 691.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8484…7b05backed Yes | 57c | 652.89$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 17c | 554.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fe…f4cdbacked Yes | 4c | 531.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 43c | 531.12$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 43c | 426.13$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…93d7backed Yes | 10c | 416.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 70c | 355.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70e…b47cbacked Yes | 35c | 342.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 54c | 337.32$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 68c | 322.86$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 53c | 298.5$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 28c | 287.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…1876backed No | 70c | 286$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 67c | 269.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed No | 72c | 252.53$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 24c | 215.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 35c | 213.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…c836backed Yes | 19c | 210.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 209.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…07e4backed Yes | 52c | 160.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…a105backed No | 74c | 159.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 74c | 156.77$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 12c | 151.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes | 23c | 151.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…375abacked No | 66c | 150.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 150.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 68c | 146.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked No | 69c | 145.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…66a1backed No | 43c | 143.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…7536backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 27c | 125.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 62c | 119.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 35c | 112.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…c685backed No | 75c | 105.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 104.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 29c | 103.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 23c | 103.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 19c | 102.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 43c | 101.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8e…c7f9backed Yes | 10c | 101.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…1993backed Yes | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…1ac6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 41c | 98.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…1304backed Yes | 52c | 97.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 90.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 21c | 89.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…b243backed Yes | 40c | 87.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 37c | 83.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ade…2e95backed No | 62c | 82.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 24c | 82.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed No | 67c | 75.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 67c | 74.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…9ff4backed No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…61aabacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…5d56backed Yes | 59c | 66.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…de11backed No | 72c | 65.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 61c | 64.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d83…e70fbacked Yes | 33c | 61.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3914backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…1212backed No | 42c | 58.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…a5bbbacked No | 72c | 56.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…3ab0backed Yes | 36c | 54.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…ada8backed Yes | 32c | 53.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…52c7backed No | 65c | 48.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…453abacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes | 57c | 43.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed No | 67c | 41.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 26c | 40.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…430dbacked Yes | 29c | 40.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.