TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,434 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes2c5,534$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.782015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No77c2,514$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.6411329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,365$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.074928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes6c1,049$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.517929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2e…b704backed Yes46c950.93$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6370%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes74c933.83$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.252272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c871.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c850$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.684195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c840.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.091,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c799.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c755.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.897135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9466…4d38backed Yes67c751.17$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c731.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.782384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c700.1$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.785725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c691.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8484…7b05backed Yes57c652.89$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes17c554.76$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2fe…f4cdbacked Yes4c531.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes43c531.12$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.651421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked No43c426.13$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.313941%16 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1629…93d7backed Yes10c416.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402560%15 W · 10 L+6.8wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+56.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked No70c355.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.031957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa70e…b47cbacked Yes35c342.19$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4422…96f4backed No54c337.32$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.91040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes68c322.86$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22011329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No53c298.5$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5411350.4%57 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x052e…de9abacked Yes28c287.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.37293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb799…1876backed No70c286$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No67c269.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1510165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d4…eb10backed No72c252.53$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.751963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes24c215.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.599446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bbb…986bbacked No35c213.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.312532%8 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f2…c836backed Yes19c210.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404524.4%11 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes20c209.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.630649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5513140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf508…07e4backed Yes52c160.29$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19b…a105backed No74c159.14$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.85771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No74c156.77$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.125743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes12c151.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.642321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf0f…e9e9backed Yes23c151.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.273627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa142…375abacked No66c150.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c150.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1134432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x468e…552ebacked Yes68c146.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked No69c145.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.933043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d54…66a1backed No43c143.25$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.65450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f35…7536backed No80c140$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes27c125.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5311226.8%30 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6090…c78abacked No62c119.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.562055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes35c112.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.613046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d1…c685backed No75c105.7$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c104.47$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes29c103.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.846726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes23c103.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.089125.3%23 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No19c102.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes43c101.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d8e…c7f9backed Yes10c101.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8eb2…1993backed Yes50c100.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7415751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa125…2761backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…21dabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df7…1ac6backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes41c98.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50bf…1304backed Yes52c97.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.511838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c90.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0734234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes21c89.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.341010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9473…b243backed Yes40c87.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes37c83.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.032740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ade…2e95backed No62c82.28$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.632055%11 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4931…6396backed Yes24c82.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3531backed No67c75.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14aa…ae2bbacked No67c74.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.291957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…9ff4backed No76c74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.76366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f4…9073backed Yes25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d27…61aabacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d9…5d56backed Yes59c66.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.972050%10 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+50.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f90…de11backed No72c65.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd512…79b3backed Yes61c64.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.854621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d83…e70fbacked Yes33c61.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2710121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3914backed Yes38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1e…1212backed No42c58.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2d…a5bbbacked No72c56.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7157…3ab0backed Yes36c54.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c5…ada8backed Yes32c53.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d0…304dbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.297619.7%15 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x421d…52c7backed No65c48.55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…3272backed Yes48c45.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226825%17 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4c…453abacked No44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes44c45.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208827.3%24 W · 64 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes57c43.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No34c42.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf0…e8c1backed No67c41.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.84966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d82…ed61backed Yes26c40.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb959…430dbacked Yes29c40.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ea…e9e7backed No49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.824847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.