TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac3c…d637backed No48c15,000$7,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,817.281030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Yes52c15,000$7,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,817.281266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+78.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes5c14,484$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.565731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes31c7,142$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.5217740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes5c5,470$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.26425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f98…eb9ebacked No64c5,005$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997a…25f5backed Yes36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes4c4,118$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.383221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744a…923bbacked Yes14c4,044$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.671283.3%10 W · 2 L+7.2wins+0.60per pick24cpaid+398.6%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,521$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.71,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b5…a549backed Yes7c2,514$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes0c2,496$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes2c2,123$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.697513.3%10 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes14c1,850$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2654151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes11c1,836$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.564418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes28c1,801$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,770$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.694928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.77135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c1,200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No70c829.63$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9815951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6111…0966backed No75c802.03$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.03666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c799.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bae…178dbacked No65c769.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes15c765.05$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.77140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes53c609.82$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.517128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes17c604.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.94625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ad…34debacked No44c532.39$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa69a…a41cbacked Yes3c511.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d1…c685backed No60c481.58$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.691163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0554…579fbacked No53c469.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.331258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d45…cfd1backed Yes11c411.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b3…82b1backed No74c410.53$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.532100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+175.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c353.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.352384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No62c346.02$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9132345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750e…1facbacked No75c335.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes36c328.42$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x21c0…c2a1backed No65c310$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973c…3485backed No71c270.62$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.59580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x854d…6f9dbacked No72c223.34$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.34580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No50c222$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1119446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb391…0325backed No56c210.62$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.624447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…21dabacked Yes19c208.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f2…c836backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204524.4%11 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No66c199.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddc4…413dbacked No52c195.49$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e34…f895backed No74c188.59$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.091030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed No71c179.5$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f2…bbebbacked No58c171.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes13c153.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7611226.8%30 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba5…6a57backed Yes14c153.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.131315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked Yes53c151.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2e…b704backed Yes11c150.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6770%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f35…514fbacked No67c149.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d4…eb10backed No61c142.76$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.171963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6721…d75bbacked No56c142.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.974141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f79…ad8abacked Yes37c137.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.622254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No70c132.85$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.858248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked No53c131.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.133161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab77…da8bbacked No77c127.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5224…795cbacked No79c126.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.193100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+78.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes16c124.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c124.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4334432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes38c119.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.82634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3387…6e76backed No59c118.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+186.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c116.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes41c111.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2813440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No63c110.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.175743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b8b…06ffbacked No67c109.83$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed No73c109.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.275761.4%35 W · 22 L+12.8wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+68.5%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x9b11…b376backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682b…2164backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes33c89.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4918833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7fa…c81abacked No75c85.95$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No61c79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.532650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7636…3f32backed No65c76.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes39c74.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.757536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc881…e370backed No70c71.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.631827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9058…c133backed No71c70.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef65…a496backed Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes33c67.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes35c64.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.938452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfadc…89c9backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc8…7c5fbacked No67c62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No56c61.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.116173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x762e…f2b9backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed No79c59.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.352548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb15…ad2ebacked Yes37c54.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes34c54.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4312433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed No76c53.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.823046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No59c52.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.736456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b4…7b60backed No58c50.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.43per pick65cpaid-64.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x351d…0ebebacked No69c50.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed Yes29c50.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.513764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb34…c6a4backed No60c50.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd687…af84backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.