TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb34…c6a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 31.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1612.5%2 W · 14 L-7.0wins-0.44per pick56cpaid-83.9%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$27.83
Knicks vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 238.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$22.25
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Wizardsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Nets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pacers vs. Hawksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.73
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.43
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$122.72
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$30
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$511.7
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25.12
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$10.64
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+67.2%+$20.16
Will the US strike Syria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20.93
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+304.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+163%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$157.5
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.49
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$192.44
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$54.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$14.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$118.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-01-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.