NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc3d0ee1d6be1ba99639682134b39888102c31b4d3ae7c48e44b638e260e137

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,731 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xce2f…aa56backed Under	52c	7,900$4,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,108	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Over	48c	7,900$3,792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,108	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xde19…8e43backed Over	48c	7,900$3,792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,108	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+20%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb482…e3ecbacked Under	52c	7,900$4,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,108	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98a9…676ebacked Under	52c	7,800$4,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,056	22	50%11 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x845b…9041backed Over	48c	7,800$3,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,056	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61dc…fba8backed Under	53c	5,849$3,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,099.99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd800…182bbacked Under	53c	5,698$3,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,020	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…9825backed Over	47c	2,200$1,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,166	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aef…6660backed Over	47c	2,200$1,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,166	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ab3…867cbacked Over	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x636d…8ea7backed Over	47c	1,800$846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$954	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c7c…674cbacked Over	47c	1,698$798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.99	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc891…1953backed Over	47c	1,649$775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$873.99	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	51c	1,217$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.92	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	49c	1,142$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.42	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	47c	796.56$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.04	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2e…9e01backed Over	49c	704.08$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.08	58	65.5%38 W · 20 L	+9.7wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	53c	410$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.3	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Over	48c	402.04$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.06	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Under	52c	399.68$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.83	623	47.7%297 W · 326 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	49c	359.38$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.84	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	47c	325.77$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.23	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Under	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	470	43.8%206 W · 264 L	-22.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc0…099dbacked Under	54c	231.46$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.99	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	50c	222.7$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.35	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1a…68d8backed Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	146	52.1%76 W · 70 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under	51c	204.08$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.08	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	68c	203$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.06	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over	48c	190.42$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.02	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	187.72$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.24	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8e1dbacked Under	54c	166.83$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Over	47c	150.89$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.97	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under	51c	148.31$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.64	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	53c	128.3$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	51c	115.14$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.72	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	53c	103.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	52c	101.92$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x440a…9599backed Under	15c	101.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	84	41.7%35 W · 49 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	258	46.9%121 W · 137 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	52c	99.89$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Over	47c	97$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.41	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x448a…3faabacked Under	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed Under	54c	76.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.32	125	49.6%62 W · 63 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdc…7de3backed Over	50c	75$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	48c	60.42$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.42	84	46.4%39 W · 45 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd59e…e640backed Under	53c	57.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+42%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Under	51c	52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	53c	50.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.84	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under	53c	43.4$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Under	53c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc503…b82cbacked Under	66c	38$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb34…c6a4backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-7.0wins	-0.44per pick	56cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under	50c	37.73$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	376	65.4%246 W · 130 L	+62.0wins	+0.16per pick	49cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1614…9dc4backed Under	53c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d2…d10dbacked Over	49c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.83	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	66cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under	53c	32.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	188	52.7%99 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…9f5abacked Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-5.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Under	54c	27.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	163	43.6%71 W · 92 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76a7…5195backed Under	53c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9139…df8dbacked Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9840…cb31backed Under	53c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fef…a3d3backed Under	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x749b…48d8backed Under	53c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fd…e540backed Under	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5012…2d71backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-22%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x608b…6e88backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeca…8c27backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	301	32.6%98 W · 203 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5this page
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5No won
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. GrizzliesTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event