NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f0810c3adb0688a4add0a1b9819afa93ba2d8b0ad5edcd60434fdd7d2314f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 11,050$5,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,164.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 1,890$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.3 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,259$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.97 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 1,048$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Grizzlies | 52c | 891.4$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.53 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Grizzlies | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 53c | 754$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.38 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 48c | 664$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 50c | 504.87$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves | 48c | 366.92$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 45c | 299.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d89…b02cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 254.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Grizzlies | 52c | 184.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Grizzlies | 53c | 183.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Timberwolves | 48c | 160.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Grizzlies | 49c | 118.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 50c | 94.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Timberwolves | 57c | 84.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Timberwolves | 47c | 75.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Timberwolves | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a9…b7b7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 61.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Timberwolves | 48c | 50.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 43.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. GrizzliesTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.