NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d01c0786bdab244da1191bde113c5edcfeb357f1201af27e4f0973c98442207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 10,914$5,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,233.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…d195backed Grizzlies | 50c | 9,526$4,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,763 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Timberwolves | 53c | 2,467$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.41 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 1,597$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.98 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 1,016$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.95 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 847.06$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 48c | 758.02$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.17 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Grizzlies | 47c | 640.83$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.23 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Grizzlies | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Grizzlies | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…6413backed Grizzlies | 52c | 361.54$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 349$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Grizzlies | 47c | 319.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves | 50c | 244.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Timberwolves | 50c | 194.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Grizzlies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 149$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…7d05backed Grizzlies | 45c | 146.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Grizzlies | 45c | 137.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Timberwolves | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Grizzlies | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 97.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Timberwolves | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…9406backed Grizzlies | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…ededbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7e7bbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…9501backed Grizzlies | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df3…ff6cbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c61…4742backed Grizzlies | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Grizzlies | 47c | 49.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…076abacked Grizzlies | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Grizzlies | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…3c90backed Grizzlies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…cb9cbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…2de8backed Grizzlies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…1fd6backed Grizzlies | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Grizzlies | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Timberwolves | 57c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54cc…3d95backed Grizzlies | 43c | 28.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72c…1e72backed Grizzlies | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 49c | 24.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ff…c93fbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…5ce8backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. GrizzliesTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.