NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed94c0559eefe5c27df429aa29ac627b0a3d88f508a0d5882f0b19b4f69b753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 34c | 2,280$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Timberwolves | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 1,329$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Timberwolves | 60c | 1,328$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.49 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 67c | 299.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Timberwolves | 67c | 297.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Grizzlies | 33c | 294.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 41c | 269.53$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Grizzlies | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Timberwolves | 56c | 215.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Timberwolves | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Timberwolves | 67c | 165.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 139.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Grizzlies | 34c | 132.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Timberwolves | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Grizzlies | 45c | 99.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Grizzlies | 35c | 94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies | 33c | 89.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Timberwolves | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…d4a4backed Timberwolves | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Grizzlies | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Grizzlies | 34c | 68.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Grizzlies | 39c | 67.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Grizzlies | 32c | 64.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Timberwolves | 67c | 52.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Grizzlies | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Grizzlies | 37c | 47.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies | 44c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Timberwolves | 64c | 41.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Timberwolves | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Timberwolves | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Timberwolves | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 29.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 60c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Timberwolves | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Timberwolves | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. GrizzliesTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.