TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,852,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,510,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,852,207 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0f7…6ee8backed Yes3c50,798$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c49,420$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.935219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0301…0796backed Yes3c39,473$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes3c35,261$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1271020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c27,692$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes4c26,885$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c25,097$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.552714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c24,111$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.3595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865a…851fbacked Yes2c23,703$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c20,964$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.47444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c19,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5313.2%1 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c17,261$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.61306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes3c16,897$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f1…9fccbacked Yes4c15,660$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x132c…c285backed Yes3c14,754$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c14,750$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.89230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed8…9dd0backed Yes2c14,513$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c13,721$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes1c12,864$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.86119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes3c12,815$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa916…c6a3backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b8…d949backed Yes4c11,292$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes2c10,307$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c10,281$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.62614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c10,279$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9be6…a799backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c9,996$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c9,896$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e9…f4a5backed Yes2c9,561$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes2c8,813$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.75616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3b…f579backed Yes3c8,786$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…c22abacked Yes1c8,565$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0588…27e5backed Yes5c8,498$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b7…be9bbacked Yes4c8,423$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes1c8,089$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c7,545$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.75474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…9f89backed Yes3c7,528$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes0c7,178$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes1c7,105$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.03110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0615…4b60backed Yes1c7,098$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes2c7,047$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c6,780$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.69449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,770$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.711644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83d…d116backed Yes2c6,716$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb19…2a3bbacked Yes2c6,240$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe413…32d3backed Yes3c6,187$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f77…eeedbacked Yes2c6,080$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes4c5,905$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.171643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+92.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x25df…6fffbacked Yes3c5,899$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b34…66adbacked Yes2c5,882$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c16…65c0backed Yes2c5,810$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes2c5,369$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…54d7backed Yes3c5,296$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes2c5,264$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Yes2c5,059$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes2c5,040$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51326.3%2 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes2c4,849$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041c…8e5fbacked Yes2c4,720$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7bc…e82abacked Yes2c4,616$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a0…b21cbacked Yes2c4,493$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes3c4,301$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3957…c483backed Yes3c4,209$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d7…2fd6backed Yes2c4,101$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5592…278cbacked Yes1c4,045$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f4…9860backed Yes2c4,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes3c4,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.953030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c4,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.41811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…8f08backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe5…7f3dbacked Yes1c3,992$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes2c3,944$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes2c3,918$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.521040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes4c3,800$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5e0…66e4backed Yes3c3,704$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d01…ce0fbacked Yes1c3,537$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c3,522$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes1c3,448$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1917…f8a0backed Yes5c3,447$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8396…e909backed Yes6c3,433$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes2c3,360$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes1c3,203$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc83…4edfbacked Yes2c3,126$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb755…4d80backed Yes1c3,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c2,980$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffa…94b4backed Yes2c2,951$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a1…8209backed Yes2c2,947$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd511…e95ebacked Yes2c2,941$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5371…83ccbacked Yes3c2,899$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa909…ef59backed Yes2c2,889$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c2,887$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.19120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02e9…368cbacked Yes2c2,853$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes2c2,808$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607a…1813backed Yes1c2,808$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8308…ca4bbacked Yes2c2,800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes2c2,775$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.271735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2291…2431backed Yes2c2,718$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9799…9536backed Yes1c2,702$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3347…588ebacked Yes2c2,671$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7309…fa39backed Yes1c2,644$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e34…db95backed Yes5c2,630$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes3c2,600$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.