Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71587dd680c729dea874b646f96d4f6bc9d2572ade824da749d2e048edc1636d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $883,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $998,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $883,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcee8…3c2fbacked No | 1c | 56,478$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…f1adbacked No | 3c | 35,574$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…06c4backed No | 1c | 21,339$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…b3ebbacked No | 1c | 20,854$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…13d4backed No | 1c | 18,678$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba98…8de6backed No | 1c | 17,180$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…a6d4backed No | 1c | 14,475$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…ed10backed No | 1c | 13,320$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…45a8backed No | 0c | 12,789$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…1d56backed No | 2c | 10,010$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba7f…5036backed No | 0c | 10,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f1…fe02backed No | 1c | 8,749$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 0c | 7,979$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…40b0backed No | 0c | 7,444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a45…7711backed No | 0c | 7,217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…2a74backed No | 1c | 7,202$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…ac88backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 0c | 6,885$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…53f2backed No | 1c | 6,804$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd532…0021backed No | 2c | 6,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…00fbbacked No | 1c | 6,261$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 71c | 5,110$3,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.81 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,831$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…2320backed No | 1c | 4,629$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f9…6e9fbacked No | 1c | 4,613$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…080dbacked No | 1c | 4,562$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…055dbacked No | 1c | 4,539$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…eb50backed No | 0c | 4,121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…9732backed No | 1c | 4,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…e397backed No | 1c | 3,936$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8265backed No | 1c | 3,705$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…897dbacked No | 1c | 3,487$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,201$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…9410backed No | 2c | 3,158$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95dd…a86bbacked No | 1c | 2,719$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 69c | 2,692$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.49 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…f110backed No | 1c | 2,690$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…486abacked No | 1c | 2,659$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…682cbacked No | 1c | 2,577$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,498$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 2c | 2,484$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…0c40backed No | 1c | 2,317$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed No | 1c | 2,301$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…ec28backed No | 1c | 2,238$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb34…c6a4backed No | 1c | 2,235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…83b0backed No | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…2b7dbacked No | 0c | 2,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4e…8f06backed No | 2c | 2,001$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…ff01backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 1c | 1,990$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…f9c1backed No | 1c | 1,887$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…6903backed No | 2c | 1,863$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…09f7backed No | 1c | 1,855$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6a55backed No | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 1,799$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…8a62backed No | 1c | 1,768$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d68…5027backed No | 2c | 1,764$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 1c | 1,748$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 1c | 1,730$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 1c | 1,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…6804backed No | 1c | 1,678$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47c…2404backed No | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…5acabacked No | 1c | 1,632$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 1c | 1,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…aa19backed No | 1c | 1,483$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…09f3backed No | 1c | 1,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 1c | 1,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624c…92a2backed No | 1c | 1,394$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…a09cbacked No | 1c | 1,376$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…a602backed No | 1c | 1,375$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…9550backed No | 1c | 1,335$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 66c | 1,299$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.42 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe213…e4aabacked No | 1c | 1,205$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…062ebacked No | 1c | 1,170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 67c | 1,124$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…8ecfbacked No | 2c | 1,061$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5997…a034backed No | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 30c | 1,008$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.51 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…6022backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…88e4backed No | 2c | 858.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…91f1backed Yes | 74c | 832.61$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 27c | 819.66$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 27c | 766$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…815ebacked No | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…4300backed Yes | 73c | 683.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2830backed No | 4c | 664.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 14c | 642.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed No | 4c | 513.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…2f65backed No | 3c | 492.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 492.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 69c | 475.83$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…552cbacked Yes | 65c | 460$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 71c | 434.99$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…4bffbacked No | 4c | 413.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 13c | 402.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 69c | 396.3$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.