Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca9d229eb89ebbc44fcee5469c9ca9c9cff9c35dbb451cd2cf2321decc933536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,732,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,496,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,732,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd84a…1c25backed Yes | 0c | 417,677$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afc…bfb7backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 0c | 97,271$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…3022backed Yes | 0c | 47,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…10e7backed Yes | 1c | 47,212$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…e56abacked Yes | 0c | 42,399$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…d75ebacked Yes | 0c | 33,781$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…b2dabacked Yes | 0c | 24,720$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…4121backed Yes | 1c | 24,603$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…430ebacked Yes | 0c | 24,031$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,098$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…2320backed Yes | 1c | 20,035$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…f8cfbacked Yes | 1c | 18,645$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2667backed Yes | 27c | 17,168$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,566.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…53f2backed Yes | 0c | 16,693$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Yes | 1c | 15,922$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…ac96backed Yes | 1c | 15,745$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ed…489fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…b86dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,999$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,384$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 1c | 12,221$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…9600backed Yes | 0c | 11,258$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcd…baf3backed Yes | 0c | 10,383$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…00fbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,098$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…9758backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…d308backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ffcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…975dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Yes | 0c | 9,769$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…1929backed Yes | 11c | 9,436$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…a6d4backed Yes | 0c | 8,583$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…0e7abacked Yes | 1c | 7,175$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 17c | 7,162$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.45 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…95fbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…ce39backed Yes | 1c | 6,406$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,197$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…c09ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6f…78c9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed Yes | 0c | 4,980$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ca…c6d2backed Yes | 10c | 4,700$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 4,535$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ec…7a02backed Yes | 1c | 4,201$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…6921backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…6903backed Yes | 0c | 3,495$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…3d37backed Yes | 1c | 3,157$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…e0a1backed Yes | 0c | 3,102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 6c | 3,079$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7d45…cfd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,074$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b18…cd73backed Yes | 1c | 3,060$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…1ec4backed Yes | 1c | 2,841$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…c458backed Yes | 1c | 2,785$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 12c | 2,720$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.07 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…714dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,603$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…fc2bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,588$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 79c | 2,559$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…2345backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8595backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,411$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…a789backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…3279backed Yes | 1c | 2,219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…3b3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd58…26b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,164$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…cf8abacked Yes | 0c | 2,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad7…990dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…0483backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 1c | 1,936$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,840$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…080abacked Yes | 7c | 1,750$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,740$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…fda4backed Yes | 1c | 1,564$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…722fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,376$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +1,203.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 60c | 1,365$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…737cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,341$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3b…0a44backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 1,284$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…2f65backed Yes | 1c | 1,282$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…676bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…6b06backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…804ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…7193backed Yes | 3c | 1,183$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3553…78cebacked Yes | 16c | 1,179$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…7471backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 77c | 1,077$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 991.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 799.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…0637backed Yes | 13c | 765.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf81…e1b7backed Yes | 16c | 749.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6269…1b0cbacked Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 654.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…ed93backed Yes | 2c | 569.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.