Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaee521c77c2a39599934819bfd21b38419e18a981d41156ed513e15218ae8500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 47c | 2,902$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.78 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,358$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,340$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 5c | 1,295$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…7471backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 15c | 857.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 853.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 827.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…39a9backed Yes | 13c | 774.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 751.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 736.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 44c | 586.07$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.28 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 420.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 62c | 416.9$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 12c | 410.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 399.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156c…0a28backed Yes | 3c | 349.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked Yes | 19c | 329.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 54c | 326$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…2359backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 40c | 298.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…2b57backed Yes | 6c | 290$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 68c | 289.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 50c | 274.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 246.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 77c | 225$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…662bbacked No | 79c | 216.68$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 212.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…4dd8backed Yes | 19c | 197.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 18c | 182.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…412ebacked Yes | 24c | 181.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 30c | 165.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 25c | 163.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 149.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 142.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 12c | 127.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb34…c6a4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…c5c8backed Yes | 18c | 114.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 12c | 106.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…2798backed No | 56c | 106.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 15c | 104.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…d057backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 50c | 43.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 42.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…7d1cbacked No | 76c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 13.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?this page
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?Yes won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.