Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80aa747a1324c08aa56f143142d486264a59a7ca5d85ae29a5f254dfcf89e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880c…de6fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,621$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,271$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 45c | 1,086$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.27 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 63c | 999.86$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.95 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…7471backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 826.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 541.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…a0ffbacked Yes | 37c | 540.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 532.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 6c | 528.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 514.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 480.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked No | 76c | 465.77$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 428.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…00ecbacked Yes | 5c | 425.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 385.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 5c | 369.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 321.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed Yes | 48c | 314.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 314.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 311.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…927bbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 284.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 61c | 219.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…08bcbacked Yes | 20c | 212.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 57c | 207.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 201.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…7f2cbacked No | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 10c | 196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 13c | 132.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 18c | 101.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…0db1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…459fbacked Yes | 15c | 92.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 42c | 88.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 61c | 80.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…df0fbacked Yes | 51c | 59.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 41.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…cb78backed No | 61c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…a018backed No | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…797ebacked No | 56c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?this page
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?Yes won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.