Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8385abd97afc1601c28548fc257be5a732f54c26b046238929f92c4190980ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 52c | 5,916$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.8 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 43c | 2,132$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.89 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 1,859$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 4c | 1,830$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 58c | 1,249$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed Yes | 2c | 934.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 48c | 900$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 7c | 867.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 850$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 728.6$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 22c | 699.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 72c | 658.5$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 615.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 581.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 79c | 547.57$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 523.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 30c | 449.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.07 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 417.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 42c | 340.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.24 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 325.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed No | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…a462backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 43c | 287.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 32c | 276.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 44c | 270.14$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 7c | 249.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 187.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…9a27backed Yes | 14c | 163.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 50c | 150.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 15c | 138.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 18c | 125.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 17c | 122.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 12c | 109.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 100.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…9d5cbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 92.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Yes | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…be7dbacked Yes | 22c | 85.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes | 21c | 83.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 73.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…797ebacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 76c | 51.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed No | 59c | 51.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf309…84d6backed Yes | 22c | 51.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 65c | 41.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…2798backed No | 57c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 48c | 25.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d2…a1efbacked No | 78c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?this page
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?Yes won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.