TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes59c6,268$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.852222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-66.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes2c5,400$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.758224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No40c2,384$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.83887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+77.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes2c2,366$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2512937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes4c1,768$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.264928.6%14 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes6c1,745$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.451910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No45c1,650$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.662065%13 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+94.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No43c1,091$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.467462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56d5…10a6backed Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.37110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66b…a324backed Yes7c1,001$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No66c947.74$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.874151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c911.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes1c880.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes22c799.97$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.996639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…034cbacked Yes27c747.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No62c648.2$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.34759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e19…669dbacked Yes6c600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes3c589.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Yes9c516.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c460.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4525311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3304…4d82backed Yes9c444.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes25c438.71$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.649115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes12c433.14$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.338510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c425$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x266d…083fbacked No78c423.2$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes32c415.75$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8911225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes18c404.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes23c337.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.511839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No47c328$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.091369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c316.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.155327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No57c307.99$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.362759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc59f…59abbacked No78c307.9$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed Yes7c295.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.834537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ef9…7e63backed No79c280$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No79c269.32$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes39c253.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4992…9cd4backed Yes8c252.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No70c241.97$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c241.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes9c237.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.032839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes43c232.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No77c223.36$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.372871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes39c221.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1329416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes5c206.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e38…a018backed No78c192.79$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.79366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes28c179.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes15c170.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.163525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeb2…376dbacked No79c160$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.841566.7%10 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes18c159.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.964427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No50c149.62$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.629475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb04b…9a27backed Yes16c147.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes28c146.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c132.87$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.496341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a3…3b6fbacked No76c128.7$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.021586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf1f…8482backed Yes28c125.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad44…9d5cbacked Yes43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No59c107.55$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.613951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23140%0 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9370…9e88backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae9…0528backed No79c86.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes15c85.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.117232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes20c79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07329.4%3 W · 29 L-7.9wins-0.25per pick34cpaid-84.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xec1b…72fabacked Yes25c78.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5af…db37backed No78c75.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No53c73.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5410241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9259…be7dbacked Yes28c72.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c71.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2326318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c5…32f2backed Yes17c63.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No61c62.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.296675.8%50 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed No62c57.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1b…d803backed Yes45c55.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed No58c51.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.863680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf309…84d6backed Yes23c51.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb79…e05cbacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No67c38.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be6…5fd6backed No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ddf…4479backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.994452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked No43c27.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No39c25.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.773759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb290…204cbacked No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.