TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd04a…39a9backed Yes2c43,970$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.891844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked No62c6,521$4,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes15c3,665$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.123435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes51c2,620$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3342222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-66.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c2,154$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cd…d07bbacked Yes56c2,047$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.1350%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a89…30f5backed Yes73c1,970$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.74650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x562f…b14dbacked No70c1,801$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.541154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No69c1,718$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.664151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No63c1,701$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+77.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes26c1,591$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.94734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,290$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.95327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c1,136$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.578510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8240…edebbacked Yes2c1,079$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes13c984.21$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.799115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes13c833.77$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes27c789.73$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.310241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes23c749.05$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.197462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes18c689.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.781910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No71c624.83$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.455743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes7c590.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…0287backed Yes3c573.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes8c566.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.514427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c547.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No39c540.78$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.374759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c521.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.461432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7858…ed04backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes55c488.88$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.833928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes49c484.58$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.612119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e4…3c39backed Yes34c476.46$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.721729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes23c473.38$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5411225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes8c451.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.47140%0 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No39c431.95$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.957462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc59f…59abbacked No78c408.78$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.78540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes7c364.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.79510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8885…5792backed Yes14c350$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c335.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.271074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fc…a72fbacked Yes29c331.3$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c331.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.65541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed No47c318.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.943625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes9c314.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.63525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes9c314.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.135318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-75.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2209…cb80backed No78c290$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes29c266.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.225311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497e…1161backed Yes15c220.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.170%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2340%0 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc69…53a0backed Yes16c179.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed No80c178.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c176.52$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes24c176.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.763721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c3f…e9a4backed No57c175.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes21c169.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes12c162.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes22c157.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.98329.4%3 W · 29 L-7.9wins-0.25per pick34cpaid-84.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No76c156.44$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.916675.8%50 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes30c155.72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.049034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes20c148.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes36c139.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No25c136.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.081540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05f4…9073backed Yes14c134.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked No76c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad44…9d5cbacked Yes50c120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb35a…c452backed Yes33c119.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.27616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-36.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed No78c117.4$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8493…667abacked Yes11c107.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No68c106.16$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.384452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c104.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1326318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No76c104.14$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.341546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ab4…b5a2backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No61c99.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.191369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes15c96.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.494117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed Yes12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.634537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked Yes26c87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.621758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50ec…aa43backed Yes18c78.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed Yes18c75.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed No14c73.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+638.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…f842backed No77c71.19$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.193100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0de…a9fcbacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6b…7cf3backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…c539backed No79c56.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d42…4f02backed Yes39c54.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46a…8e39backed Yes65c54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.120%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes23c45.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes26c44.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.583951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed No79c43.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked No52c43.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.873652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafae…d89abacked Yes64c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.752382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c38.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2629416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa957…318bbacked No76c35.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13b…0e2bbacked No77c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes40c30.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-81.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed No63c28.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+175%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked No73c27.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…bb92backed No76c26.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed No74c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.142343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.