Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x314152da763b19d740c3b5a4a1b9f0e3e909d6e7df5c498163b69a37a2dc042a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No | 0c | 7,290$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…9640backed No | 4c | 4,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab4…b5a2backed No | 6c | 3,998$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10de…f610backed No | 1c | 3,833$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 0c | 3,416$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed No | 2c | 3,152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d88…3c94backed No | 1c | 2,849$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked No | 4c | 2,713$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…ab8fbacked No | 1c | 2,225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418c…8ca5backed No | 1c | 1,551$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,523$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…5d03backed No | 8c | 1,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed No | 8c | 1,063$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 5c | 1,061$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed No | 9c | 967.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed Yes | 66c | 787.99$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 704$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…8d49backed No | 2c | 666.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…eb88backed No | 2c | 632.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…4e33backed No | 5c | 591.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 70c | 591.19$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.91 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 44c | 550.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 25c | 506.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 74c | 384$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 24c | 373.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 79c | 359.51$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…610fbacked No | 3c | 348.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…6bcbbacked No | 7c | 284.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 22c | 271.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 260.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…4be6backed No | 24c | 211.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 58c | 171.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…cb17backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…a0b9backed No | 68c | 149.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 54c | 148.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 61c | 123.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 122$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 27c | 116.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d6…0851backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 38c | 103.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 85.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 38c | 78.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 37c | 74.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efa…5b20backed Yes | 59c | 61.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…08bcbacked Yes | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 37c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…8205backed Yes | 74c | 51.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…026ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 49.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…4dd8backed Yes | 31c | 39.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 48c | 34.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…acc4backed No | 77c | 31.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes | 75c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…d89abacked Yes | 49c | 26.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 80c | 21.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?this page
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.