Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x996f0873d9ebfc1f9ebe28b0eb5cbf56843e2e932b47807d7d3dfc7f423d1f56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 46c | 2,491$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,595$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 837.19$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.59 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…1b3cbacked Yes | 25c | 778.13$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 5c | 762.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 735.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 72c | 645.75$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.29 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 608.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Yes | 34c | 600.75$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 15c | 577.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 37c | 499.53$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.7 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 420.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 406.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 351.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…9b84backed No | 77c | 305.31$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3a…00e0backed No | 71c | 294.32$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…7ac7backed No | 72c | 278.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 278.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…fdc1backed No | 77c | 258.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 13c | 253.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 20c | 244.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked No | 78c | 231.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 227.11$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 218.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 11c | 198.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…1d9bbacked No | 80c | 188.75$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 180.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 21c | 176.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 160.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 155.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…3438backed No | 73c | 137.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 57c | 132.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 68c | 131.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…4be6backed No | 79c | 130.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…c8c3backed Yes | 8c | 129.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 55c | 120.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…448abacked Yes | 36c | 112.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…ea0cbacked No | 72c | 110.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…df0fbacked Yes | 33c | 100.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…be7dbacked Yes | 17c | 86.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 83.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…b2f4backed No | 65c | 76.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…3256backed No | 73c | 68.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 62c | 64.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd3…2327backed No | 69c | 64.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…b539backed Yes | 33c | 61.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…cb17backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 75c | 47.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 58c | 47.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…60ffbacked No | 76c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 45.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fc…3e3abacked No | 75c | 45.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2a…51b0backed No | 76c | 43.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…511ebacked No | 72c | 41.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked Yes | 29c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…6ca9backed No | 63c | 39.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…0e46backed No | 67c | 37.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 78c | 35.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdad…885dbacked No | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…641fbacked No | 74c | 30.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…107abacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa736…d04fbacked No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…6e85backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4172…ac4abacked No | 60c | 26.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…54cdbacked No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…4e33backed No | 78c | 21.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb5…666ebacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?this page
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?Yes won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.