Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9f63d37a8a61e688627e8de15d401f53cafbffab10c8de7b9a84b0262db058
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 5c | 5,237$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 14c | 1,297$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,132$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 76c | 1,100$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 55c | 928.94$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 24c | 827.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 738.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 709.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 707.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 702.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 679.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.02 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 50c | 676.32$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.23 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 564.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 19c | 525.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 28c | 513.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 21c | 466.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…a4f8backed Yes | 24c | 428.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 6c | 355.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 13c | 333.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…a0b9backed Yes | 22c | 315.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…b8a4backed No | 79c | 294.38$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 292.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 55c | 276.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…689bbacked Yes | 9c | 270.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…2310backed Yes | 11c | 244.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 11c | 244.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…de6ebacked Yes | 19c | 216.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 15c | 183.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 29c | 174.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes | 21c | 172.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Yes | 12c | 163.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 31c | 135.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 52c | 133.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 77c | 130.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 59c | 126.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…9929backed Yes | 9c | 125.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 57c | 124.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 117.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed Yes | 27c | 112.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…be7dbacked Yes | 19c | 111.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 103.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…d057backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…8205backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 37c | 99.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked Yes | 24c | 99.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 89.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…eb88backed Yes | 23c | 85.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…08bcbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked Yes | 29c | 72.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…6ca9backed No | 62c | 68.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 17c | 64.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 62.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 38c | 58.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ad…8b58backed Yes | 23c | 50.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…2798backed No | 54c | 50.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…d89abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…be20backed Yes | 23c | 46.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…ba6abacked Yes | 30c | 40.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…9ce6backed Yes | 31c | 39.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 38.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 46c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…7ec6backed No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…667bbacked No | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…a0c7backed No | 72c | 28.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 67c | 24.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…7cf3backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?this page
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?Yes won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 25?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 27?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 28?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 30?No won
- Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.