TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Volkanovskiof Volkanovski, Lopes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,853,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,134,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,853,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,758 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Volkanovski59c724,005$423,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300,080.6335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Volkanovski60c501,778$298,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,961.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Lopes41c500,000$203,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,749.997245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Volkanovski59c338,998$200,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,989.32683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Lopes41c241,401$99,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,874.593447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Lopes42c239,700$100,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,416.983043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lopes42c224,000$94,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,08013039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lopes41c217,696$89,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,129.77233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Lopes41c199,999$81,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,999.771637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Volkanovski61c177,738$108,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,472.72560%15 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Lopes42c168,378$71,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Volkanovski58c163,140$94,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,700.1219154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Volkanovski58c135,496$77,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,508.352733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Volkanovski59c131,943$78,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,624.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lopes41c118,742$48,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,339.7326743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Volkanovski60c116,667$70,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,666.67560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Lopes40c99,996$40,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,198.5822259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Volkanovski60c90,250$53,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,530.15440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lopes42c89,681$37,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,976.939636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Lopes42c71,428$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Lopes9c64,734$6,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,124.8810546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed Volkanovski59c50,000$29,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,499.97875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Lopes43c49,999$21,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,499.774040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb383…f189backed Lopes45c49,581$22,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,498.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Lopes14c49,163$6,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,938.544835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lopes41c48,756$19,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9906937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Volkanovski57c45,196$25,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,454.493860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Lopes41c44,720$18,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,335.29240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed Volkanovski58c43,969$25,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,628.622171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Volkanovski59c43,885$25,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,992.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lopes41c43,317$17,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,626.7314558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1f…264ebacked Lopes0c38,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lopes41c37,500$15,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,374.9437152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Lopes41c36,585$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Lopes41c30,000$12,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,3003455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Lopes40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0003740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Volkanovski58c29,737$17,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,489.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Volkanovski59c26,795$15,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,107.856850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Volkanovski58c25,000$14,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5001040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Lopes42c24,695$10,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,37211554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked Volkanovski59c23,053$13,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,393.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Lopes41c21,764$8,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,889.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lopes42c19,279$8,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,014.927528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Lopes43c18,605$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed2e…2c74backed Volkanovski60c18,569$11,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,432.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Volkanovski59c18,200$10,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,462728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Volkanovski58c18,000$10,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,539.9528849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Volkanovski58c17,694$10,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,481.375437%20 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Lopes42c16,551$6,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,951.212441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Lopes41c16,344$6,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,701.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Lopes15c16,260$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.284829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x748d…dc7fbacked Lopes41c16,131$6,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,613.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Lopes41c16,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5003943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Lopes41c14,448$5,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,923.67534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Volkanovski57c13,674$7,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,879.883964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4a8…2587backed Lopes41c13,014$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Lopes41c12,866$5,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,275.056238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Lopes41c12,790$5,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,230.6311761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Volkanovski59c12,712$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,211.863441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lopes14c12,160$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.353625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Lopes41c12,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.8525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Volkanovski58c11,957$6,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,048.6427448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xade5…0113backed Lopes42c11,893$4,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,964.72955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Volkanovski59c11,000$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5101758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Volkanovski59c10,599$6,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,364.862254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Lopes41c10,539$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Volkanovski59c10,161$6,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,131.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048b…09efbacked Volkanovski61c10,124$6,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Volkanovski60c10,042$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,042.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30dd…cbfdbacked Lopes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Volkanovski58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2002552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Volkanovski59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.9816049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lopes6c9,446$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.524131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e1…60febacked Volkanovski59c9,120$5,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Lopes41c9,010$3,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,694.091631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa1…36b4backed Volkanovski59c8,475$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d8…e99bbacked Volkanovski60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.331662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lopes26c8,011$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.1520139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2aa…deecbacked Volkanovski60c8,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Lopes41c7,952$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260.283625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Lopes41c7,927$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.251729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Lopes41c7,700$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1575632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Lopes44c7,500$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Lopes10c7,428$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.4115939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Lopes41c7,400$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.995244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Volkanovski58c7,350$4,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.58650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fff…b34ebacked Lopes43c7,281$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,131650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lopes42c7,280$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.62040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Lopes30c7,167$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Volkanovski60c7,157$4,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.254245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Lopes42c7,143$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0007653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Volkanovski60c7,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Volkanovski59c7,000$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,847728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Volkanovski59c7,000$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8703650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Volkanovski59c6,800$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Lopes42c6,786$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Lopes43c6,706$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.3729151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Volkanovski58c6,215$3,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.271464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf6e…d642backed Lopes41c6,057$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Volkanovski60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.997238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.