UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc76ea3c676aab083a927aaf10e9af1869fb2d507157ab4d979bb3060aa42636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 53c | 943.28$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.39 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 913.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 43c | 465.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 57c | 401.03$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 51c | 334.47$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 43c | 272.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 57c | 272.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e85…80c1backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 48c | 208.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…6eb5backed No | 61c | 111.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…a5a9backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 53c | 81.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…3503backed Yes | 48c | 64.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe5cbacked Yes | 46c | 48.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 31.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…d0b3backed Yes | 78c | 30.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…6a16backed Yes | 41c | 30.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…3771backed Yes | 46c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)Volkanovski won
- Will Alexander Volkanovski win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.